Texas primaries test GOP redistricting strategy
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The Texas primaries this month offered Democrats some hope that Republicans' mid-decade redistricting last year won't net the GOP all five seats the party wants to gain in the U.S. House.
Why it matters: Texas Republicans, at the urging of President Trump, kicked off a nationwide redistricting war for control of the House — but the party leaned on past gains with Hispanic voters in South Texas that are showing signs of cracking.
The big picture: The Democratic Party is pouring resources into four races in majority-Latino districts that, if won by Democrats, would result in a net gain of just one seat for Republicans.
- And a fifth Latino-majority district could be up for grabs now that incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales has dropped out of the race.
- In those five districts, Democratic primary turnout exceeded Republican turnout, but experts cautioned that it's unclear whether Democrats can carry that momentum into November.
Zoom in: Out of five seats the GOP redrew as pickup opportunities, two (Districts 9 and 32) in the Houston and Dallas areas appear to be ripe for Republican victories. Democrats believe they can hold onto another two seats in South Texas (Districts 28 and 34), where the Democratic incumbents are running for reelection.
- The fifth redrawn seat, the San Antonio-area 35th District, features primary runoffs on both sides, and Democrats aim to make it a battleground.
Plus: Democrats are eyeing another two seats that are held by the GOP.
- The 15th District in South Texas is held by U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Edinburg), but Democrats think they have a strong candidate in Tejano star Bobby Pulido.
- The 23rd District, stretching from San Antonio to El Paso, where Gonzales was forced to drop his reelection bid after admitting to an affair with a staff member, looks to be a long shot for Democrats but perhaps not out of reach.
State of play: There's "no way" the GOP can take all five seats they targeted, Jon Taylor, political science department chair at UT San Antonio, tells Axios. "Especially in what's appearing to be a wave election and a backlash by Latino voters."
Yes, but: Democrats have fallen behind on fundraising in some districts like the 15th and 35th.
What they're saying: "Texans are souring on Republicans' failed agenda of higher prices, higher health care costs, and tax giveaways for billionaires," Madison Andrus, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, tells Axios in a statement.
The other side: "Democrats can try to bluff their way through the headlines, but they don't have credible recruits, they're burning through cash, and they're scrambling just to protect their own vulnerable incumbents," Christian Martinez, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, tells Axios in a statement.
Here's what you need to know about each of the districts.
District 9
This Houston seat could go to the GOP for the first time in 30 years. Incumbent Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) is running in an adjacent district.
State of play: State Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park) and former Harris County Judge candidate Alexandra Mealer will face each other in a Republican primary runoff on May 26.
- The winner will face Democrat Leticia Gutierrez and Independent Roy Morales in November.
District 15
De La Cruz has represented this district since 2023 and is the first Republican to have ever won the district. Democrats want it back.
What they're saying: "If there's going to be any breakthrough for Democrats, I think 15 is probably their best bet," says Taylor, with UT San Antonio.
Yes, but: The Cook Political Report rates this district as going likely Republican.
District 23
Republican Brandon Herrera will be the Republican nominee in this sprawling district after Gonzales dropped out.
- Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, a former teacher, attorney and advocate for children in the foster care system, sees an opportunity to exploit some of Herrera's more extreme views, as expressed on YouTube, where he is known as "The AKGuy."
- The Cook Political Report recently moved the district from solid Republican to likely Republican.
District 28
The seat held by longtime Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar was made more friendly to Republicans, but Democrats are confident he can beat Republican challenger Tano Tijerina in November.
- The district no longer includes parts of San Antonio.
Context: Cuellar was indicted on conspiracy and bribery charges in 2024. But he won reelection that year and was later pardoned by Trump.
- Republicans acknowledge this will be the most difficult of the five redrawn districts for them to flip.
District 32
This redrawn district now extends from Dallas to East Texas. Incumbent Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Dallas) is running in an adjacent district.
State of play: There will be a Republican runoff between Jace Yarbrough, an attorney endorsed by Trump, and Ryan Binkley.
- The winner will face Democrat Dan Barrios and Independent Charles Harper in November.
District 34
Democrats believe five-term U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez can win reelection.
- He faces Republican Eric Flores in November. The GOP thinks Flores is a strong candidate after trouncing former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores in the primary.
District 35
The new district encompasses southern Bexar County as well as Guadalupe, Wilson and Karnes counties south of San Antonio. Incumbent Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) is running for an Austin-based seat, but Democrats are seeking to defend the district.
State of play: Both parties are locked in a May 26 runoff.
- State Rep. John Lujan was considered the early favorite and has Gov. Greg Abbott's endorsement. He faces Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Monica De La Cruz, who has Trump's endorsement.
- On the Democratic side, Bexar County sheriff's deputy Johnny Garcia faces activist Maureen Galindo.