Latino turnout surges in Dem primary in Texas, testing GOP gains
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Democratic primary turnout in Latino hubs across Texas surged, while GOP turnout slumped, suggesting some Texas Latinos have turned away from the Republican Party.
Why it matters: The results could signal a renewed interest in Democratic candidates in the fall general election after many voters along the Texas-Mexico border and in other Latino-majority areas shifted to the right just two years ago, experts tell Axios.
State of play: Democratic participation across Texas this year was highest among the past three primaries — but it was even higher in the state's 64 Latino-majority counties.
- Turnout in Latino-majority areas across the state was up by 4 percentage points compared to the last midterm Democratic primary in 2022 and more than 1 percentage point higher than in 2024, a presidential election year.
- And while Republican turnout surpassed Democratic turnout in Latino counties in 2024, it lagged far behind Democratic turnout this year.
Zoom in: The Latino-majority counties include Bexar County, home to San Antonio, as well as Nueces County, home to Corpus Christi, and all border counties.
- Latinos make up more than 25% of registered voters in Texas, per the Latino civil rights organization UnidosUS.
What they're saying: "This is historic. We believe that we're going to look back at the end of this cycle and determine that the Democratic primary turnout (in Texas) is going to be the turning point in American politics," says Rafael Collazo, senior political director at UnidosUS, which is a frequent critic of the Trump administration.
- UT–Rio Grande Valley political scientist Álvaro Corral described the primary in South Texas as a "backlash."
- Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 are now frustrated with the rising cost of living, immigration enforcement and foreign policy — including the Iran war, he tells Axios.
Context: A recent Pew Research Center Survey found deepening pessimism and heightened fears among Latinos in the U.S.
Between the lines: The high-profile Democratic U.S. Senate race between state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) also drew strong interest. And while Trump wasn't on the ballot, he had an effect on voters, Collazo says.
- "They don't like what they're seeing. That's giving them more incentive to have their voice heard in the ballot box," he says.
What's next: Corral suggested the Rio Grande Valley's recent rightward shift might have been "a sort of Trump effect."
- November could offer the first real test of that theory, when Trump isn't on the ballot.