Congressional vote totals show a near miss for "Bluetah"
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Republicans in Utah lost more ground in Tuesday's U.S. House races than in any other state, compared with the 2022 midterms.
Why it matters: It's the closest the state has come to turning "Bluetah" — a development Democrats have long awaited as demographic change and transplants from other states have previously failed to nudge the GOP's hold in Utah elections.
The intrigue: The shift was so extreme that Utah's new congressional maps, court-ordered last year to reverse GOP gerrymandering, may have actually saved Republicans a seat by concentrating Democrats in a single district, per a recent FOX 13 analysis.
By the numbers: Utah's U.S. House vote totals swung about 30 points toward Democrats since 2022 — the nation's biggest shift, per data journalist Nate Silver.
- As of Monday, total Republican votes in the four races had fallen from nearly 671,000 in 2022 to about 478,000 this year.
- Democrats held almost 474,000 votes this year, up from 342,000 in 2022.
Zoom out: The reddest states had the most Republican votes to lose — a factor in the next four states that shifted the most, per Silver: North Dakota, Alabama, Indiana and Mississippi.
Stunning stat: Statewide, GOP House candidates led Democrats by less than half of a percentage point.
Zoom in: In the newly created District 1, Ben McAdams had gotten more than 70% of the vote.
- None of the GOP winners in the other three districts reached 60%.
Between the lines: The outcome raises the possibility that Democrats could have flipped more congressional seats under the old maps in Tuesday's nationwide blue "tsunami."
- A precinct-level review shows Democrats would have won two races under the old maps — though all four would have been extremely close, FOX 13 reported.
Reality check: Democrats would have had to defend those seats again in 2028 — possibly without the same level of opposition to a lame-duck president, which led to Tuesday's massive congressional realignment.
Zoom out: Utah's results contrast with trends nationally, where gerrymanders overwhelmingly backfired on GOP candidates thanks to maps that spread Republican voters too thin to defend what looked like safe red seats when they were drawn.