Flash floods on the rise in Utah
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Flash floods are increasingly common in Utah — a phenomenon consistent with climate change.
The big picture: Nationally, flash flood warnings have set a new record this year, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick reports.
By the numbers: By rolling five-year averages, Utah's flash flood count rose from 14 in 2000 to almost 45 in 2021, per Utah health officials.
- Warnings are also trending up, with 14 so far this year from Salt Lake's National Weather Service office, which covers most of Utah, according to a tracker at Iowa State University's Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
- That's more than the entire year in 1986, the first year for which data was available — and Utah's monsoon season is just beginning.
Context: Climate change "is supercharging the water cycle," sparking heavier precipitation extremes and related flood risks, according to Climate Central, a climate research group.
The intrigue: The state historically has the nation's least intense rainstorms, per federal weather data — but in southern Utah, a little water can create deadly floods.
How it works: "Bare sandstone and scarce vegetation do little to soak up rain. Instead, muddy waterfalls cascade over the cliffs," Capitol Reef National Park explains in a warning to visitors.
- With just a half-inch of rain in an hour, "dry washes can fill with rushing water, several feet deep, carrying large rocks, logs and debris."
Flashback: In 2015, a single storm caused flash floods that killed 21 people in southern Utah — the state's deadliest storm since federal weather analysts began collecting data in 1950.
- Seven canyoneers died in Zion National Park, while 13 people — three women and 10 children — drowned when a van was swept away near Hildale. A Hurricane motorist died in floods from the same storm.
The latest: The Washington Post reported last week that the development of a tool aiming to predict how rising temperatures will impact extreme rainfall frequency had been delayed amid a U.S. Commerce Department review.
- A NWS spokesperson confirmed to the Post the move to delay the forward-looking part of the Atlas 15 project.
- But a National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration spokesperson told Axios the administration "has not stopped the production of Atlas 15."
- The Commerce Department did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.