Danny Avula is poised to win Richmond's mayoral race

• The last white mayor was Sen. Tim Kaine, who was appointed by City Council in 1998.

Driving the news: No one can say with 100% certainty who won until the absentee and early votes are recorded by district, but by 11am on Wednesday, Mosby, Harrison Roday and Andreas Addison had conceded to Avula.

• Candidates Roday, Addison and Maurice Neblett didn't win any districts.

What they're saying: "The challenges our city faces will only be exasperated once Trump takes office again," Addison said in a statement.

• "We cannot succumb to fear and hatred," he continued. "Richmond absolutely needs the best of us, especially from its leaders in City Hall, City Council, and School Board."

The big picture: As of 1am, the last update from the Department of Elections, Avula was on track to take six of the city's nine districts, one more than city code requires to win.

• Based on Axios' count of the district breakdown, they include Richmond's 1st (Near West End), 2nd (The Fan, Jackson Ward and Scott's Addition), 3rd (Northside), 4th (Southwest), 5th (Byrd Park, Woodland Heights and Carytown) and 7th (East End) districts.
• Avula had also clearly garnered the most votes — 44,832, or 46% of all votes — compared to the next closest contender Michelle Mosby's 24,798, or 25% of ballots.
• Preliminary data shows Mosby won all of the 8th and 9th precincts.

Between the lines: No candidate has been elected mayor of Richmond in the last 20 years without winning a majority of voters in the East End, city center and at least some portion of South Richmond, per an Axios review of the state's historical elections database.

By the numbers: In three of the city's last four mayoral elections, more than 60% of voters cast their ballot for someone other than the winning candidate.

• This year so far, about 54% of Richmond who cast a ballot voted for someone other than Avula.

Zoom in: Avula is a Church Hill resident, pediatrician and former commissioner of the Department of Social Services who led Virginia's COVID vaccination campaign.

• He's long been seen as the race's frontrunner but faced criticism from opponents and some residents for accepting donations from someone once tied to an anti-abortion group.
• Avula has repeatedly affirmed his support for abortion rights and expanding access to reproductive health care.

Flashback: When he announced his candidacy in April, he told Axios "the opportunity to lead and manage through crisis has really prepared me for a role like this where, again, the city has so much opportunity. But there's a lot that needs to be addressed."

A breakdown of the rest of the votes, by candidate:

Andreas Addison, City Council's outgoing 1st District representative, won about 12% of the vote.

Political newcomer Roday, the founder of nonprofit Bridging Virginia and a former private equity executive, won 13.0%%.

Maurice Neblett, a community organizer, had 3% of votes.

Go deeper: Live results for other top races in Virginia