What Richmond's past mayoral elections can tell us about the 2024 contest
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Richmonders head to the polls in just a few days to elect their next mayor.
Why it matters: In three of the city's last four mayoral elections, more than 60% of voters cast their ballot for someone other than the winning candidate.
- And Richmond has only had five mayoral elections since the 1950s.
The big picture: Richmond is weird. It has its own kind of electoral college, which requires the victor to win a majority of votes in five of the city's nine districts, otherwise, it heads to a runoff election.
- That's been the case, as has a return to mayoral elections, since the early aughts, when 80% of voters supported a ballot referendum to bring back electing their mayor. Before that, and for most of the 20th century, city council appointed the mayor.
Be smart: The majority-districts stipulation was put in place to ensure candidates tried to appeal to all Richmond voters, not just wealthier and white residents, especially given the city's history of trying to dilute the Black vote.
- But it's also meant that the majority of Richmond voters haven't voted for the winning mayoral candidate in most recent elections, according to an Axios review of a Virginia Department of Elections historical database.
Zoom in: That was the case for both of outgoing Mayor Stoney's wins.
- In 2020, he eeked out a win with 37.7%, or just under 41,000, of votes.
- He did it by winning the majority of votes in the city's 3rd (Northside), 6th (all of downtown and most of Manchester), 7th (East End), 8th (Southside) and 9th (South Central Richmond).
- That was up from the 35.5%, or 36,000 votes, he won in 2016.
- That year he took the 2nd (The Fan, Jackson Ward and Scott's Addition) 3rd, 5th (Byrd Park, Woodland Heights and Carytown), plus the 6th and 7th.
Of note: Stoney's predecessor, former Mayor Dwight Jones, won easily and a majority in all nine districts for his reelection in 2012, but his first run was a nail-biter.
- In 2008, Jones won with 39% and 34,554 votes, taking the 5th through 9th districts.
- Former Gov. Doug Wilder, who helped lead the 2003 referendum campaign, became the city's first elected mayor in modern history in 2004 with 79% of the vote and a majority of votes in all nine districts.
The intrigue: No candidate has been elected mayor of Richmond in the last 20 years without winning a majority of voters in the East End, city center and at least some portion of South Richmond, per our review.
- Those districts also have some of the city's largest concentration of Black voters, based on a census breakdown mapped by The Richmonder.
- Fun fact: Richmond's whitest districts — the 1st (Near West End) and the 4th (Southwest) — have swung for the losing candidate more often than not since 2004.
What's next: Election Day is Tuesday, so we'll hopefully know who Richmond's next mayor is next week. But if it heads to a runoff, save the date for Dec. 17 when Richmonders will vote again.
- In a runoff, the two candidates with the most popular votes would compete to win the majority of districts. If the candidates win the same number of districts, the candidate with the most popular vote wins.
- Because in Richmond, we like to keep things interesting.
Go deeper and explore the vote breakdowns in the Dept. of Elections database.
Editor's note: This story was corrected to note that candidates in a mayoral runoff would compete to win the majority of city council districts.