When Virginians can expect to know Election Day results
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
Election Day is finally here, but if 2020 is any indication, we won't know the results of the biggest races we're watching — the presidential and Richmond mayoral — on Election Day.
Why it matters: Election Day seems to be turning into Election week.
The big picture: In 2020, the presidential race was decided on the Saturday after Election Day when the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for President Biden — 3.5 days after polls closed there.
- Virginia was called quickly that year, just 36 minutes after the polls closed. It was one of 31 states called within the first hour four years ago and one of 44 called within 24 hours.
- That left six toss-up states — Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia — that took a full day or longer to be called.
Meanwhile, Richmond's last two mayoral elections, in 2020 and 2016, weren't called until Wednesday evening — the day after the election — in part due to absentee ballots and the city's wonky version of an Electoral College, according to media reports at the time.
- This year, Richmond election officials said if the absentee ballots aren't fully recorded by district by 11:59pm Tuesday, they'll call it a night and start again Wednesday morning.
Still, the presidential race is expected to the biggest nail-biter and the one where results could take the longest (as long as Richmond's mayoral election doesn't head to a runoff).
What we're watching: The margins in the race for president could be even closer in swing states this time despite some new laws and policies aimed at expediting ballot counts.
- In Pennsylvania, county officials are sounding the alarm that counting will probably take days again. The state doesn't allow offices to begin opening mail-in ballots until 7am on Election Day.
Yes, but: Georgia, Nevada and Michigan moved up vote-counting timelines since 2020.
- But, but, but: 2024 will be their first presidential-level test — and in Georgia, officials warn that other political dynamics could blunt any newfound speed.
The bottom line: It could be a long week.
Of note: If priors years are any indication, the results for the rest of the races of locals' ballots — Senate, U.S. House, Richmond City Council and Richmond School Board — should be in on Election Day.
Go deeper:
What's on the ballot in Richmond
What has — and hasn't — changed for how swing states count ballots