The NC races that broke the GOP's legislative supermajority
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
North Carolina Democrats appear to have narrowly broken the GOP's fragile supermajority Tuesday night by flipping seats in closely contested races across the state.
Why it matters: Republicans will likely be just one seat shy of a supermajority in the state House in January, when newly elected lawmakers' terms begin. The shift may seem small, but it could have a major impact on schools, taxes and health care in North Carolina.
Driving the news: The GOP's success appears as though it will come down to just two races in which Democratic candidates are leading by just a few hundred votes.
The big picture: No longer will the GOP have the votes to pass its social and economic priorities unchecked, as it has for the last year and a half.
- Instead, Republicans have to either work with Democratic Governor-elect Josh Stein or persuade Democrats to vote with them to override any of Stein's vetoes.
The latest: Numerous state legislative races remain undecided, and the outstanding provisional and absentee ballots could shift power back to Republicans as officials continue counting votes in the coming weeks.
- As of now, however, the two deciding state House seats appear to be in House District 24, encompassing Nash and Wilson counties, where the Republican, incumbent Rep. Ken Fontenot, is trailing Democrat Dante Pittman by fewer than 900 votes, according to State Board of Election results as of Wednesday afternoon.
- In Granville and Vance counties' House District 32, Democrat Bryan Cohn leads Republican incumbent Rep. Frank Sossamon by fewer than 200 votes.
Zoom out: Should Democrats hold their leads in those races, they will have unseated two Republican incumbents whose losses may be blamed on the Republican gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket: Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.
Catch up quick: Robinson lost decisively Tuesday night, conceding relatively early in the evening to Stein and trailing him by some 14 points as of Wednesday.
- Robinson's campaign, which was mired in controversy from the start, went into free fall in September when CNN published a bombshell report saying he had made numerous unsavory comments on a porn site message board.
- Democrats jumped at the opportunity to link candidates, including Sossamon and Fontenot, to Robinson, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to do so.
State of play: Republicans appear to have kept their supermajority in the state Senate.
- They are still within striking distance of picking up two extra seats.
- In Senate District 42, Democrat Woodson Bradley is ahead of Republican Stacie McGinn by just 27 votes.
- In Senate District 18, which includes northern Wake County, Republican Ashlee Adams is outpacing Democrat state Rep. Terence Everitt by just 38 votes.
The intrigue: State Rep. Tricia Cotham, who delivered the GOP a supermajority in 2023 after she changed her party affiliation from Democrat to Republican, appears to have won her race in Mecklenburg County, though she's ahead by fewer than 300 votes.
What's next: Republican lawmakers still have two months left of their supermajorities in both chambers, enabling them to pass legislation, including measures that could limit the governor's powers, over the objections of outgoing Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper for a little longer.