How a Super El Niño could impact Oregon

Driving the news: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts there's "a greater than 90% chance" of a strong El Niño event starting this fall.

• And there's a 75% chance it reaches historic strength, exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950, according to a NOAA report released last week.

State of play: Under a typical El Niño cycle, Oregon sees a warmer, drier winter, state climatologist Larry O'Neill tells Axios. That's not ideal for rebuilding mountain snowpack, reservoirs and groundwater, he says.

• Yes, but: A Super El Niño could flip that script.
• Some of the strongest El Niños on record — in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 — brought Oregon wetter weather.

Case in point: Mt. Hood Meadows recorded above-average snowfall during two of the three last Super El Niño winters, per spokesperson Ben Mitchell.

• The resort got 620 inches in 1982-83 and 478 inches in 2015-16. Compare that with last year's dismal 232 inches — just 54% of the resort's annual average.

• "While this is not necessarily tied to Super El Niño seasons, our historical snowfall data shows that any time we have had a very low-snow season like the one we just had, it dumps snow the following season," Mitchell tells Axios.

The bottom line: The next few months are likely to be warmer than normal, O'Neill says, but he's much less certain about what kind of rain and snow we'll see.

• "Given that most of Oregon is in some form of drought, there is a lot riding on this winter," he says.