Portland's kid population keeps dropping
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Young children's share of the population in the Portland metro area dropped from 6.8% to 4.8% over the past two decades, census data shows, mirroring national trends.
Why it matters: The child population trend can reflect cities' ability to attract, retain and support families.
- But larger nationwide factors are also at play, including birth and death rates as well as immigration.
Zoom in: Oregon has one of the lowest birth rates in country — above only Washington, D.C. and Vermont — and it is expected to have a strong influence on the state's demographics and economy in the coming decades.
- Plus: Oregon's birth rate is now below replacement level — meaning Oregon's economy is fully reliant upon migration for population growth.
Zoom out: Some experts link Oregon's low birth rate to the fact that we are an older state with a median age around 40.
The big picture: The U.S. birth rate hit a record low in 2024, while life expectancy is approaching 80 following a pandemic-era dip.
- Those data points might suggest children will make up less of the overall population over time — fewer kids, more older folks.
- Yet the country grew around 1% between 2023 and 2024 — breakneck speed, as such things go — driven primarily by immigrants (including children, complicating the births vs. deaths picture).
What we're watching: The Trump administration's efforts to clamp down on and dissuade illegal immigration could affect the child population share in ways not yet well understood.