How tariffs could impact Oregon housing affordability
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Someday these logs could be houses. Photo: Universal Images Group via Getty Images
Tariffs on imported goods could raise construction costs, and some warn it could exacerbate Oregon's already-severe housing crisis by pushing prices further out of reach for many.
Why it matters: A lack of affordable housing is among the drivers of homelessness, and the cost of building materials directly impacts the state's ability to meet its goal of building tens of thousands of housing units people can afford.
By the numbers: The U.S. imports most of its foreign timber from Canada, which is subject to a 14.5% tariff imposed under the Biden administration.
- The Trump administration imposed 10% tariffs on goods from all other countries, with exemptions for Mexico and Canada, and much higher tariffs on Chinese imports.
- Roughly 7% of the materials used to build a new home in the U.S. are imported, per the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB), with tariffs expected to add an average of $9,200 to the cost of building a home.
What they're saying: "If the cost of homebuilding goes up due to higher lumber prices, along with the numerous other materials that are typically imported to build a house, then the quantity of new home construction could fall, reducing demand for lumber in general," said Jeff Reimer, head of the department of applied economics at Oregon State.
- Reimer said that the uncertainty in the market over how long the tariffs will last and when, or if, new ones will be imposed, "is a major impediment to new investment" from the domestic timber industry, which would be necessary to ramp up production.
The other side: Nick Smith, a spokesperson for the American Forest Resource Council, told Axios that producers in the west are ready to step up if imports of lumber decline.
- He also said that other moves by the federal government — like the Fix Our Forests Act, which would cut down on environmental reviews and streamline logging — could bolster the domestic timber industry.
The big picture: NAHB chairman Carl Harris said in a January letter to President Trump that homebuilders had already seen prices for materials rise roughly 30% since 2021.
- "Our sector relies heavily on a diverse and cost-efficient supply chain for building materials such as lumber, steel, gypsum and aluminum," Harris wrote.
- And while the tariff on Canadian lumber appears to be stationary at 14.5% for now, the NAHB expects them to rise later this year.
The bottom line: Gov. Tina Kotek stressed that, at the scale the state needs to build new homes, homebuilders need to import materials.
- "And now with the additional tariffs, (it's) almost impossible to get some of them," Kotek said, per OPB. "So it will impact our ability to construct new homes."