Maricopa County is on pace for a dramatic spike in heat deaths
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Maricopa County is on track for a major spike in heat deaths this year.
Why it matters: We're set to erase much of the progress Valley municipalities made to reduce heat fatalities a year ago.
The big picture: The rising death toll corresponds with increasing temperatures in the Valley and a growing homelessness crisis, underscoring the challenge of keeping people safe from extreme heat.
By the numbers: So far this year, 230 deaths have been confirmed as heat-related, according to the county's tracker. Another 567 deaths remain under investigation.
- At this time a year ago, there were 136 confirmed heat deaths and 382 pending investigations. Roughly 77% of those pending cases were confirmed, for a total of 430 heat deaths.
- If that confirmation rate holds, the county would see 636 heat deaths in 2026, the second most ever, behind 2023 (645).
There's no simple answer for what's causing the increase, coming off a year when the county reduced heat deaths by 178 year over year.
- Phoenix and health officials credited an intensified heat mitigation strategy — including more cooling centers and other resources — for that dip.
- Those resources have only expanded in 2026, leaving health officials frustrated.
What they're saying: "We have every resource available this summer," says Kelli Donley Williams, the deputy director of the county health department. "So that is really not an issue at play, which does not make sense to us."
State of play: Unhoused people have historically accounted for between 45% to 50% of heat deaths, and the county's unhoused population has approached 10,000 for the last several years.
Zoom in: Arizona has very landlord-friendly eviction laws, including no restrictions on evicting people during heat emergencies, says Will Humble, the executive director of the nonprofit Arizona Public Health Association.
- Humble adds that the 2023 court-ordered dismantling of the homeless encampment known as The Zone also dispersed the unhoused population across the Valley, making it harder to help them.
Context: It's also becoming hotter for longer in Phoenix, Donley Williams notes.
- The Valley recorded its earliest-ever 100-degree day in March this year, a month that saw nine heat deaths.
- Maricopa County has had only one other confirmed March heat death since 2020.
Stay safe: If you're concerned about the heat, call 211 or find a heat-relief site on the county website.