40 is the new 30: Phoenix millennials delay homebuying
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
The typical first-time homebuyer in the U.S. is now 40 — the oldest on record, according to a report by the National Association of Realtors.
Why it matters: Homeownership has traditionally been a tool for generational wealth building, but in pricey markets like Phoenix, people are waiting longer to tap into the American Dream — or foregoing it altogether.
State of play: First-timers made up 21% of buyers between July 2024 and June 2025 — a new low in data going back to 1981.
- In the 1980s, the average first-time buyer was in their late 20s, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Zoom in: Phoenix Realtors president Christy Walker told Axios the national numbers track with what she's seeing in the Valley: young people delaying homebuying in hopes of a return to lower prices that may never come.
Reality check: Phoenix home prices have stabilized since their pandemic-era peak, and interest rates have dropped to just above 6% from nearly 8% in 2023.
- Most of metro Phoenix has favored buyers since last November, Tina Tamboer of the Cromford Report said at the Phoenix Realtors 2026 forecast event last month.
- As interest rates continue to moderate, competition will pick up with more buyers returning to the market, likely tipping the balance back in sellers' favor, she said.
Between the lines: Many prospective buyers need to adjust their expectations of what a first-time home looks like in today's reality, she advises.
- The footprint is smaller than five years ago. It may not be in your favorite neighborhood. And it'll likely take some "sweat equity" to get it looking like an HGTV model, she said.
- Yes, but: A first home should be viewed as a stepping stone, Walker said.
The intrigue: Luxury apartments and built-to-rent communities, with high-end finishes and lavish amenities, are attractive to would-be buyers who want a move-in-ready option in nicer neighborhoods. And many are choosing this route instead of buying, Walker said.
- "It's a very tempting carrot … but in 10 years, you have nothing to show for it," she said.
The other side: Some financial experts believe there are better investments to be made beyond today's tricky real estate landscape.
- And while renting doesn't make you money in the long run, it's almost certainly a cost savings in the short term.
The bottom line: If homeownership is part of your plan, you're not too late: 40 is the new 30.