Buyers may soon lose their edge in Phoenix housing market
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Prospective homebuyers who've been waiting for the perfect time to jump into the Phoenix housing market should act quickly or prepare to lose the upper hand, real estate analyst Tina Tamboer told a group of realtors last week.
Why it matters: Most of metro Phoenix has favored buyers since last November, but indicators suggest the balance may soon shift, Tamboer of the Cromford Report said at the Phoenix Realtors 2026 forecast event.
The big picture: Barring major, unforeseen circumstances, home prices will not return to pre-2020 levels and interest rates aren't going back to the 3% range we saw during the pandemic.
- Today's conditions are likely as good as it gets for buyers, Tamboer said.
Zoom in: She said there are five big reasons buyers should consider making a deal before year's end:
📉 Rates are down
Since the Federal Reserve first began teasing rate cuts in July, mortgage rates have fallen and currently sit below 6.25%, Tamboer said.
- In January, mortgage rates were roughly 7.25%, which means "everything is on sale."
- For every 1% rate drop, principal and interest payments decrease by 10%, she said.
The intrigue: Tamboer said buyers tend to come back to the market when rates stabilize — not when they're falling. That's because people want to wait for the lowest point before they strike.
⬇️ Prices are down
The price per square foot for Maricopa County homes in the 1,500-square-foot range is down about 3% from last October and about 13% lower than its peak in mid-2022.
What we're watching: Both supply and demand are up right now — but supply is higher because sellers who previously felt locked into their low rates are finally feeling motivated to sell because rates are falling.
📅 It's the fourth quarter
Sellers want to get deals done before new listings come online on the 1st of the year (spring is traditionally the most active time in Phoenix's market), and may be more motivated to make it happen.
💰 Builders are offering incentives
Homebuilders are still offering incentives on new builds, ranging from complimentary countertop upgrades to rate buy-downs.
Yes, but: Tamboer warned these perks will be the first thing to go as soon as buyer demand picks up.
🤝 Concessions are common
More than half of all homes closed in Maricopa County in the first three weeks of October included a seller concession — the most in at least 25 years, Tamboer said.
- If you exclude the luxury market, the rate is even higher — nearly 70% of all homes in the $200,000 to $600,000 range sold with a concession.
Between the lines: Concessions often come in the form of the seller covering the buyer's closing costs, making home repairs or buying down the mortgage rate.
- These can help buyers stretch their budgets.
The bottom line: "Buyers are still drunk with power. They should enjoy it now; nothing lasts forever," she said.