Phoenix's population grew in 2024 — thanks to migration
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Metro Phoenix's population grew by nearly 85,000 people between 2023 and 2024, thanks in large part to international migration, according to new U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
Why it matters: Population growth typically juices employment and the economy, George Hammond, director of the Economic and Business Research Center at UofA, told Axios.
- Newcomers generate more jobs in the construction, retail and tourism industries, he said.
The big picture: With death rates increasing and fewer people having kids, Phoenix and other U.S. cities will have to rely heavily on migration — both domestic and international — to drive population growth, Hammond said.
By the numbers: Last year's population growth in the Valley was made up of about 14,500 "natural changes" (births outpacing deaths), 21,000 transplants from other U.S. cities and nearly 49,000 international newcomers.
Zoom out: Without migration, Tucson would have seen a population decrease (more people died than were born there between 2023 and 2024). Instead, it increased by more than 11,500 people.
- Of the new arrivals, nearly 8,400 were from outside the U.S.
Context: Migration has always been a significant factor in Arizona's growth story, researcher Tom Rex of the L. William Seidman Research Institute at ASU told us.
- Although the Valley's been booming since the start of the pandemic, our growth rate is actually much more moderate now than it was in the 1990s and early 2000s, when the Valley was actively trying to lure newcomers in hopes that it would lead to an economic boom, he said.
- Now, instead of "growing for the sake of growing," people are moving to the Valley in response to high-quality jobs, like those coming out of the Taiwanese Semiconductor Industry Co. facility in north Phoenix, he said.
What they're saying: "We're still growing, but we're not growing at such a ridiculous pace as we were," Rex said.
What we're watching: Hammond told us he expects the state's population growth will slow in the coming years in response to the Trump administration's immigration policies and the continued decline of natural growth — he predicts deaths will outnumber births in Arizona by the mid-2040s.
- The state will have to prepare for how this will impact the labor force, school enrollment, tax revenue and other economic and societal factors that rely on growth.