Arizona sees huge drop in illegal border crossings
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Illegal border crossings in Arizona fell dramatically during President Trump's first full month in office, mirroring a national trend.
The big picture: In the Border Patrol's Tucson and Yuma sectors, preliminary data shows that illegal crossings dropped more than 70% between January and February, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
Zoom out: Crossings had been trending down in the weeks before Trump's inauguration, driven by policies on either side of the U.S.-Mexico border, experts say. But the numbers have plunged since he began implementing — and broadcasting — his sweeping immigration crackdown.
- "The Invasion of our Country is OVER," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post last weekend celebrating the decline.
- The drop represents an overlap of Trump's sweeping changes in policy and rhetoric with trends that began months before he returned to the White House, the Migration Policy Institute's Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, who closely tracks border data, said.
Driving the news: Border Patrol recorded around 8,300 apprehensions of migrants who crossed the border unlawfully between ports of entry in February, according to the data obtained by Axios.
- In January, according to CBP statistics, Border Patrol recorded some 29,100 encounters, down from around 47,300 the month prior.
- The February numbers are the lowest recorded since FY 2000, the earliest year of monthly data publicly accessible.
- There were over 130,000 encounters in both February 2023 and 2024.
Context: Illegal border crossings spiked at the end of 2023 but started to slow in 2024 after the Biden administration implemented new restrictions and Mexican officials ramped up enforcement.
- Mexico's actions were a "really key" reason for the downward trend "that often goes a bit under the radar," said Putzel-Kavanaugh.
- Former President Biden last June signed an executive order that took aggressive action to curtail border surges by implementing asylum restrictions in periods where border encounters were high.
- That triggered a "huge dip" in the number of migrants arriving irregularly between ports of entry, Putzel-Kavanaugh said.
Catch up quick: The Trump administration's long-promised crackdown started on day one of his term.
- Officials shut down an app that facilitated the legal entry of some migrants at the border, used military aircraft for deportations and loudly publicized a mass deportation plan.
- The CBP One mobile application going dark left thousands stranded in Mexico, with their appointments for asylum screenings canceled.
Zoom in: Migrants are likely in a "wait-and-see" moment now, Putzel-Kavanaugh said, as they determine how to navigate "many different layered policies" that make it "really hard to know if there's really access to humanitarian protection."
- There are also several pending legal challenges to the Trump administration's policies, including its efforts to fast-track deportations.
What to watch: Border crossings also fell sharply when Trump took office in 2017, but he faced his own border crisis in 2019 — though not to the levels seen under Biden.
- It's unclear if the current ultra-low levels will be sustainable, says Putzel-Kavanaugh, noting border numbers are "volatile" and fluctuate in the context of an "ever-changing environment.