Trump's immigration policies may be creating a quieter border in Arizona
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President Trump's illegal-immigration crackdown may be deterring potential border crossers and resulting in less activity along the border with Mexico. Photo: John Moore/Getty Images
The U.S.-Mexico border has been fairly quiet since President Trump took office, which his administration attributes to his tough immigration policies.
The big picture: Apprehensions in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Tucson sector and across the border have declined since President Biden left office and are down from the same time in 2024.
- Since Trump took office last month, illegal border crossings have fallen 92%, according to the president's border czar, Tom Homan.
- Homan said about 14,000 migrants had been arrested in Trump's first three-plus weeks in office, compared with about 21,000 in November under Biden.
- Apprehensions during one recent seven-day span were down by 91% from the same period in 2024, per the New York Times.
Between the lines: While the decline may seem counterintuitive, given Trump's aggressive emphasis on tougher border and immigration enforcement both during his campaign and since taking office, his policies and rhetoric may be driving down illegal crossings and arrests at the border.
- Border officials in Arizona told the Times that migrants have largely stopped surrendering in large numbers to claim asylum.
- Crossings fell during Biden's final weeks in office — he implemented new asylum restrictions in June — and decreased further after Trump's inauguration, the Times reported.
- Trump issued an executive order on his first day in office reinstating his "Remain in Mexico" policy for asylum seekers.
Yes, but: A U.S. Department of Homeland Security spokesperson clarified that Homan was referring only to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests.
- The November numbers from the Biden administration include more than 7,500 arrests by ICE and another 13,500 by CBP.
- The Trump administration stopped providing daily ICE updates after Feb. 4. The administration suggested in social media posts that ICE had arrested about 8,500 migrants suspected of entering the country illegally in Trump's first two weeks in office.
By the numbers: Weekly apprehensions and other migrant encounters in the Tucson sector have dropped from about 1,200 in late January to 450 since then, per the Times.
- On one day, there were just 22 people in custody, compared with 500 a month ago.
What they're saying: "That's the lowest I've seen it in I can't even tell you how long," Sean McGoffin, chief Border Patrol agent in Tucson, told the Times. "The certainty of arrest and return is a huge changing point."
Catch up quick: The Trump administration announced nearly a month ago it was deploying 1,500 troops to the southern border, including in Arizona, which the acting defense secretary said was "just the beginning."
- The Army announced this month that an additional 500 troops would deploy to Arizona from Fort Drum in New York.
Flashback: There was a similar drop in apprehensions at the start of Trump's first term in 2017, but apprehensions increased again in 2018 and 2019, the Times noted.
Threat level: Trump's asylum crackdown may prompt more migrants to attempt to avoid detection as they enter the U.S. illegally through Arizona's forbidding desert terrain, a perilous journey that often leads to dehydration and death.