Focus groups: Abortion a key issue in Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race
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Several Pennsylvania swing voters who backed former President Trump in 2016 but switched to President Biden in 2020 say abortion will be a deciding issue in the state's contentious U.S. Senate race, per our latest Engagious/Sago focus groups.
Why it matters: The face-off between Sen. Bob Casey (D) and Republican challenger Dave McCormick could decide the balance of power in the chamber, and spending on the contest is expected to outstrip most Senate races this election cycle.
The big picture: The U.S. has seen a rise in voters who say they'll back abortion rights this election, which comes two years after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
- A record 32% of voters say they would only vote for candidates for major offices if they share their views on abortion, per a Gallup poll earlier this year.
In the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, abortion hasn't dominated the discussion as much as other issues, such as the economy and foreign policy.
- And some swing voters told us they've heard conflicting information about candidates' stances.
Driving the news: Casey and McCormick head to Philadelphia to square off in their final televised debate Tuesday night, hosted by 6ABC.
State of play: Five of 12 voters in two online focus groups conducted last week say they haven't decided who to support in the Senate race.
- Some who identified as anti-abortion rights said the issue will play a major role in who they vote for. Four mentioned wanting to make sure McCormick supports exceptions for rape, incest and the mother's health before casting their ballots.
How it works: The online panels were comprised of four Republicans, three Democrats and five independents.
- While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events.
Catch up quick: Casey has shifted his position on abortion, per Spotlight PA.
- He once described himself as a "pro-life Democrat," and voted in 2018 to ban abortion after 20 weeks.
- But he criticized the overturning of Roe v. Wade for putting women's lives at risk. And he's since supported codifying abortion rights.
Meanwhile, McCormick calls himself "pro-life," and he's said he supports exceptions for rape, incest and when the mother's life is in danger.
What they're saying: One swing voter heard conflicting information about McCormick's stance and wanted to do more research on his position before entering the voting booth.
- Another voter said McCormick had clarified his abortion position in a recent ad that painted him as " a little more moderate" on the issue.
- "I'm more 'pro-choice,' but also I want to know that it's someone that's going to stand strong with my values," says Hope B., a 49-year-old undecided voter from Montgomery County.
The bottom line: "Pennsylvania swing voters want reassurance Dave McCormick is not extreme on abortion," Engagious president Rich Thau, who moderated the focus groups, tells Axios.
- "And when they don't know where he stands, or hear conflicting statements about past positions, that undermines confidence in him."
What's ahead: Tuesday's debate starts at 7pm, airing on 6ABC and streaming.