Philadelphia gun violence is declining in 2024
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
Philadelphia has seen staggering drops in homicides and shootings in 2024, compared to the same period last year.
The big picture: The city is on track to see one of its least violent years in more than a decade.
By the numbers: Violent crime is down 12% from this time last year, per city police data.
- Homicides have been nearly halved and shootings are down 34% — a trend consistent in many of the nation's biggest cities following huge jumps during the pandemic.
- Philadelphia has also seen double-digit percentage point drops in rapes, and robberies and aggravated assaults where the perpetrators used a firearm, per the data.
Despite the improvement, the city is still on track to eclipse 1,000 shooting victims in 2024.
Zoom out: In April, the Center for American Progress reported that Philadelphia had the most significant drop in gun violence of any big city in the country.
- Per the latest police data, Philadelphia is on pace to have fewer than 300 homicides this year for the first time since 2016, when it recorded 277.
- It recorded its fewest number of homicides (246) in 2013, dating back to at least 2007.
Zoom in: Areas like Kensington and North Philadelphia — historically two of Philly's most violent neighborhoods — are helping drive the overall decline in gun violence, per the Inquirer.
- This comes as police have started using a data-driven "pinpoint" strategy to deploy more officers to 10 crime hotspots that accounted for more than three-quarters of Philly's shootings in 2023.
- Mayor Cherelle Parker's administration began cracking down on crime and quality-of-life issues in Kensington in recent months, including conducting surprise sweeps in the area.
What they're saying: Police officials told the Inquirer they were at a loss to explain the stark decreases because the city still struggles to address poverty and low police staffing levels.
- The drops also predate some of the newer efforts in Kensington, they say.
Meanwhile, SEPTA has seen a 47% decline in violent crimes this year, including robberies and aggravated assaults, compared to the same period in 2023.
- The agency has ramped up enforcement on low-level offenses, saying they're often linked with more serious crimes.
Yes, but: SEPTA has seen a jump in assaults on its workers — especially bus operators — since 2019.
- It's among the issues that federal transit regulators ordered the agency to fix in a new report released Monday.
What we're watching: Whether the trend holds. Police warn gun violence typically surges in the summer, when more people are outside because of the warmer weather.