What New Orleans inmate will be caught next? Here's what the betting markets say
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Ten inmates from the Orleans Justice Center escaped May 16. Photo: Chelsea Brasted/Axios
First, there were New Orleans jailbreak T-shirts. Now, there's a chance for you to make money betting on who among the escaped inmates will be caught by police next.
Why it matters: Five inmates have been caught, but five are still on the run, authorities said Wednesday.
Zoom in: Polymarket, a Blockchain-based prediction market for newsy moments, is letting people bet on who they think will be nabbed by Friday.
- Bets on each of the five remaining inmates were going for less than a dollar apiece, the market showed Wednesday afternoon, with odds highest for Jermaine Donald's swift return.
By the numbers: Research shows that 82% of escaped inmates are back in custody within a week, according to numbers reported by The Times-Picayune, so the Friday deadline does make some sense.
- For those playing the long game, more than 99% of escaped inmates are back within six months, data shows.
Yes, but: The size of the market was extremely modest, with just around $6,000 in volume as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Compare that to the betting around the papal conclave, which Axios' Felix Salmon reports was around $3 million on April 22, about two weeks before Pope Leo was named.
Between the lines: While New Orleans has found it easy to laugh about the absurdity of the historic jailbreak, the gravity of the situation hasn't been lost on local authorities and prosecutors, some of whom left town out of fear for their safety, District Attorney Jason Williams said Monday.
The latest: After touring the jail Wednesday, Williams said "certainly more than one person" was responsible for the jailbreak, and he anticipates more arrests this week.
- Minutes later, Louisiana State Police announced two of them.
- Cortnie Harris, 32, and Corvanntay Baptiste, 38, of Slidell, were arrested Wednesday for assisting some of the inmates after they escaped, Louisiana State Police say. Harris transported two inmates around New Orleans, police say, and Baptiste helped feed Corey Boyd before his recapture.
Authorities had already arrested Orleans Justice Center maintenance worker Sterling Williams on Tuesday. He faces charges of principle to simple escape and malfeasance in office, the attorney general's office says.