Papal betting markets put their money on the next Pope
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The papal conclave is a prayerful and devout attempt to discern the person whom the Holy Spirit is calling to be the next bishop of Rome.
- For those so inclined, it's also an opportunity to make money betting on the outcome.
Why it matters: Rarely do the sacred and profane clash more obviously than during periods of speculation surrounding a conclave.
The big picture: The idea of the wisdom of crowds — that a group will make better and wiser decisions than any individual — undergirds not only conclaves but also all democracies and public markets.
- The motivations behind such processes, however, vary wildly.
Follow the money: On Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market, the "Who will be the next Pope?" market has seen a modest $3 million in total volume. (The outcome of the Canadian election, by contrast, has seen more than $55 million in bets.)
- Going into this weekend, the "No new Pope in 2025" contract was considered the most likely outcome. It was trading at 66 cents on the dollar, implying a 2-in-3 chance that Francis would live out the year.
- Now, that contract has gone to zero, and the new favorites are Italy's Pietro Parolin, trading at 37 cents, and Luis Antonio Tagle, of the Philippines, trading at 26 cents.
Between the lines: It's highly unlikely that Pope Francis would have been amused by the financial speculation on his successor.
- He emphatically rejected what he called the "dogma of neoliberal faith" that the marketplace can solve every problem by means of the "invisible hand."
- To the contrary, he said, "financial speculation fundamentally aimed at quick profit continues to wreak havoc."
Flashback: Attempts to monetize the result of the conclave are nothing new.
- In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV forbade all betting on the election of the pope, under penalty of excommunication.
- That law, however, was abrogated in 1918, which means there is currently no canon law on the subject, per Edward Peters, a professor of canon law at Sacred Heart seminary in Detroit.
Where it stands: Betting markets don't have a great track record when it comes to predicting the next pope.
- In 2013, the favorites were Angelo Scola of Italy and Peter Turkson of Ghana. The eventual pope, Jorge Bergoglio of Argentina, was 15th in the running.
- As anybody who saw the 2024 movie "Conclave" can attest, the outcome of such meetings is by design largely unpredictable.
- As such, betting markets are unlikely to give a particularly accurate sense of the probabilities.
The bottom line: There are more than 130 cardinals, and the next pope could be any of them.
- None of them have a good idea of who the next pope will be — which means none of us do, either.
