New Orleans violent crime trending lower for 2025

By the numbers: The NOPD has so far seen an overall, year-over-year decrease in violent crime by 20%, department data shows.

• That's driven by a decrease in nearly every category of violent crime including car theft (-48.6%), carjackings (-33%), unarmed (-28.8%) and armed (-13.9%) robberies and rape or sexual assaults (-3.9%).
• Murder is down by 34% so far this year — a striking statistic on its own, and that includes the terror attack that killed 14 people. Without that anomaly, the figure would amount to a 60% drop.

What they're saying: The data shows "what is possible when you actually work strategies and when you are focused or precision-based," NOPD chief Anne Kirkpatrick said last week in a press conference celebrating the improvements.

The intrigue: In 2022, when New Orleans was again dubbed the murder capital, much of the talk around crime in the city centered around how understaffed the police department was.

• It still is, with fewer officers in the department at the end of 2024 than there were in 2022.
• That's part of why it can be so difficult to pinpoint exactly what leads to violent crime increases or decreases.

Yes, but: New Orleans' improvement hasn't existed in a vacuum, and nationwide data is shaping up to possibly give 2025 the lowest U.S. murder rate ever recorded, writes crime analyst Jeff Asher.

• "The math generally checks out, and the idea that it's even plausible just 5 years after the largest increase in murder ever recorded is quite remarkable," he says.
• A report last year also showed that the nationwide, post-pandemic violent crime spike was linked to laid-off men and out-of-school teen boys.

State of play: Kirkpatrick does have her theories about what's driving down New Orleans crime, and she pointed to a fairly new federal law enforcement partnership as one.

• That partnership, which includes the ATF and Homeland Security, has led to more than 100 arrests and nearly 200 warrants since it began last August, NOPD says.
• A high solve rate is another reason, she says. Today in New Orleans, "there's a 9 out of 10 chance that whoever does take people's lives, you're going to be arrested," Kirkpatrick said.

Zoom out: Improved department reports have also helped, Orleans Parish District Attorney Jason Williams says, which has given his team stronger cases when a suspect ends up facing charges in court.

• Former NOPD interim superintendent Michelle Woodfork made that a priority, Williams tells Axios New Orleans, and it has continued under Kirkpatrick.
• "This work product is better than it's ever been," he says.

Behind the scenes: Driving much of the NOPD's clearance rate is detective James Fyfe, who started working homicides in 2022, according to The Times-Picayune.

• "This guy's amazing. ... Not only is he solving the case, but he's putting together such a tight file that my ADAs and the homicide unit talk about him like he's a rock star," Williams said.
• Read a Times-Picayune profile on Fyfe.

What we're watching: Data can change anytime.

• Or, as Asher cautions, "this trend could change or the decline could soften over the remainder of the year."
• "The decline has a floor to it — just as the increase had a ceiling — and we won't know where it is until we reach it," he continues. "Reading too much into trends at this point is, much like our mini Aussie puppy, nutso bananas."