Tropical Storm Rafael forms, could reach Louisiana

The big picture: Steady to rapid strengthening is expected as it moves through unusually hot waters in the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said late Monday.

• Rafael is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Its maximum sustained winds are forecast to reach at least 100 mph, which would be Category 2 intensity.
• Watches and warnings are in effect for Cuba, Jamaica and parts of the Florida Keys.

Yes, but: It's too early to tell if it could ultimately reach Louisiana and the northern Gulf Coast.

• NHC says the models diverge when the system enters the Gulf, and they have lower confidence in that part of the track.
• Current atmospheric conditions in the Gulf are also expected to weaken the storm.
• If it does reach the coast, the current forecast has it arriving late Friday into Saturday, according to the National Weather Service in New Orleans.

Zoom in: The storm could mean heavy rainfall for Florida and the Gulf Coast, but it's too early to pinpoint where and how much, forecasters say.

What to do: It's good to pay attention and know a threat may be on the horizon, National Weather Service meteorologist Lauren Nash tell Axios.

• Have supplies ready, and know where you would go if you need to evacuate, she said.
• It's also important to understand that a forecast can change daily.

The fine print: The margin of error is greater the further away landfall is. Meteorologists refine the track and hazards as landfall gets closer.

• The key, they say, is to look at the entire cone of uncertainty and not focus on the center line.
• Go deeper for more tips for understanding long-range forecasts.

State of play: Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic season, which ends Nov. 30.

See the latest forecast and track.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information.