Betting odds show a tightening race between Ogles and Hatcher
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Rep. Ogles. Photo: Heather Diehl/Getty Images
U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles remains the favorite, but the District 5 Republican primary race is tightening, according to betting market odds.
Why it matters: Ogles must fend off a challenge from former state official Charlie Hatcher in order to keep his seat in the newly redrawn district.
By the numbers: In May, Ogles had a 94% chance and Hatcher had a 5% chance of winning the nomination, according to the Kalshi betting market.
- As of Monday, Ogles' odds slipped to 64% and Hatcher stood at 38% on Kalshi.
Context: By contrast, Sen. Marsha Blackburn has a 96.3% chance compared to U.S. Rep. John Rose's 3.3% to win the Republican primary for Tennessee governor.
Catch up quick: Ogles' four years in Congress have been marked by bombastic statements and a campaign finance scandal.
- Ogles called for the denaturalization and deportation of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
- Following an immigration raid in Nashville last year, he requested a federal investigation of Mayor Freddie O'Connell, but the inquiry apparently never went anywhere.
- After conservatives criticized this year's Super Bowl halftime show, Ogles called for a congressional investigation into the NFL.
- Although crime has been declining in Nashville, Ogles asked for the National Guard to be deployed here. Ogles was also the subject of a criminal investigation and an ethics inquiry into his campaign finances.
Yes, but: Ogles no longer represents Nashville. In a special session in May, the legislature redrew his district to represent suburban and rural areas stretching from Williamson County to Memphis.
Zoom in: Hatcher has a well-funded campaign and, as a former farmer, a sales pitch that is uniquely tailored to the heavily agricultural district. Hatcher served as commissioner for the Tennessee Department of Agriculture under Gov. Bill Lee.
- Former Gov. Bill Haslam endorsed his campaign last week.
- Perhaps explaining the jump in betting market odds, the Invest in Tomorrow national political action committee disclosed it is spending $688,000 to support Hatcher, according to the Tennessee Journal.
- The PAC's goal is to support candidates who are pro-clean energy, the Journal reports.
The other side: Ogles has the ultimate weapon in a Republican primary: President Trump endorsed him.
What's next: The primary is Aug. 6. The winner will almost certainly face Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, a Democrat, in the Nov. 3 election.