Nashville will be the epicenter of political upheaval
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
Tennessee politics will be transformed over the next three years with open seats for some of the state's top elected offices.
Why it matters: Tennessee voters will be choosing new leaders for state and federal posts, while Nashville could be facing an unprecedented Metro election.
Congress: All three U.S. House seats representing Nashville will be the subject of competitive elections over the next 15 months, making Music City the epicenter of political change.
- First up is the race to replace Rep. Mark Green, who surprisingly retired from Congress mid-term.
- The stage is set for an all-out sprint toward a special election. The whirlwind primary takes place Oct. 7 and the general election is Dec. 2.
- U.S. Rep. John Rose is leaving the House in order to run for governor, opening up the District 6 seat in 2026. That's not the only congressional election that will be of intense interest next year.
The intrigue: For the first time in modern political history, the national Democratic Party is investing in flipping a House seat held by an incumbent Republican in Rep. Andy Ogles.
What we're hearing: The District 7 Republican primary has even the most plugged-in insiders puzzled. No one seems to know who will emerge from the competitive field.
- In the District 5 race, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder is generating buzz in Nashville. He began his campaign with an impressive initial fundraising haul, and he's been working behind the scenes to secure the backing of influential politicos in Nashville.
- His opponent in the Democratic primary is Nashville Metro Councilmember Mike Cortese.
- Ogles could soon have a primary opponent of his own, as speculation is increasing that outgoing state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher could vie for the seat.
Governor: Gov. Bill Lee is term-limited, creating an open election for voters to choose his replacement. Although elections for such coveted jobs are typically political free-for-alls, this race begins with a frontrunner in Sen. Marsha Blackburn.
- She doesn't have to retire from the Senate in order to run for governor in 2026. But if Blackburn wins, she would have the unusual job of appointing her own interim replacement before a special election to fill her seat in 2028.
- Elected officials who would possibly want to be appointed to the Senate have already lined up to endorse Blackburn, including Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs and U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett.
Metro Council: Then there's the Nashville Metro elections in 2027. A new state law that would force the city to reduce the size of the council from 40 to no more than 20 hangs in the balance.
- Metro hopes the state Supreme Court will rule in its favor and strike down the law. If the legal challenge fails, then the city government will be reshaped as well.
- The result would be incumbent council members forced to run against each other in newly drawn districts.
- A smaller council would likely lead to a political cage match pitting the business community against progressive activist organizations.
The bottom line: The open races, competitive elections and uncertainty facing Metro create political upheaval in Tennessee's capital city.
Editor's note: This story was corrected to note the date of the special election to fill the District 7 vacancy is Dec. 2 (not Nov. 3).