Analysis: Governor's race looks to be Blackburn vs. Rose
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If elected offices were a deck of cards, the U.S. Senate would be a mighty queen and the U.S. House would be a solid 10.
Why it matters: The metaphor is worth keeping in mind since a senator, Marsha Blackburn and a House member, U.S. Rep. John Rose, are apparently set to square off in next year's all-important gubernatorial GOP primary.
State of play: Both candidates have all but said they intend to run and Rose has a press conference for a "special announcement" scheduled for Thursday.
Context: Rose, the businessperson and former state agriculture commissioner, is popular in his district and has a staunch conservative track record.
Yes, but: Blackburn enters the race as the obvious favorite.
- That's what happens when you've won two statewide races, boast a robust fundraising network and enjoy a tight relationship with President Trump.
Ag Day intrigue: The legislature held Ag Day on the Hill on Tuesday. Some insiders thought it was notable that Blackburn and Gov. Bill Lee, who is term-limited, walked together down the long steps from the Capitol.
- A former ag commissioner, state fair advocate and eighth-generation farmer, agriculture is central to Rose's political brand.
Between the lines: Blackburn rose through the ranks as an activist, state tourism official, state senator and then U.S. House member. She's the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate in Tennessee history and she'd be the first woman to serve as governor.
- Blackburn also used her 2024 Senate campaign to train future GOP activists and expand her network of possible grassroots supporters. She spent campaign money to run a statewide TV ad wishing people a Merry Christmas after her reelection in November.
- Perhaps she had her eye on the governor's mansion well before the surprising news broke this year that she was interested.
- Rose seems to be acknowledging his underdog status, referring to himself as a "conservative outsider" to the Tennessee Journal this week. "We need a conservative outsider, and I think I bring that with executive experience, which I think is what the job is," he said.
The bottom line: Rose's announcement kicks off the governor's race.
- Early gubernatorial favorites don't always win (see Rep. Diane Black in 2018). But if Blackburn throws her hat in the ring as expected, she'll be in the pole position.