New poll shows mayor's race is a toss-up
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
Nearly half of likely voters in the Nashville mayor's race are undecided, according to an independent poll conducted in recent days.
Why it matters: With eight top candidates emerging in the field and just six weeks before early voting begins, it appears to be anyone's race to win.
By the numbers: Of those who have a preferred candidate, Metro Councilmember Freddie O'Connell has earned an early lead. O'Connell was backed by 10% of those polled, just ahead of state Sen. Jeff Yarbro at 9%.
- State Sen. Heidi Campbell and former city official Matt Wiltshire were right behind at 8% each.
- 45% of those surveyed are undecided.
Details: The poll, first reported by the Nashville Banner, was conducted by the reputable firm Public Policy Polling and funded by a commercial real estate coalition called NAIOP. The poll's margin of error is 4.2%.
- Davidson County property assessor Vivian Wilhoite, who was the last top candidate to enter the race, was not included in the poll.
What we're watching: The poll shows signs of life for Wiltshire's campaign. Since he has never run for public office before, Wiltshire began the race with a sizable name-recognition gap compared to other top candidates.
- Along with businessperson Jim Gingrich, Wiltshire is the only candidate to air television ads as he seeks to make up that ground.
- According to the poll, Wiltshire has positive favorability with Democrats (19% favorable, 7% unfavorable) and Republicans (20% favorable, 10% unfavorable).
- His campaign is courting independent and moderate Republican voters, so those numbers are an encouraging sign. By comparison, Gingrich has 3% support, according to the poll.