Trump's 30-point Iowa win sets difficult path for rivals
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Former President Trump's subzero Iowa caucus day victory — the coldest in Iowa's history per the National Weather Service — reflected the landslide suggested by many earlier polls.
Why it matters: A red-hot win of 30 or more percentage points would essentially cinch Trump's GOP nomination, political scientists previously told Axios.
Yes, but: Second and third place finishers Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley projected confidence at their Iowa watch parties as their attention turns to New Hampshire and South Carolina.
What he's saying: Trump thanked the "great people of Iowa" after his projected victory.
- Speaking before the second-place finisher was called, Trump said he wanted to "congratulate" Haley and DeSantis "for having a good time together."
- "I really think it is time now for everybody, our country, to come together," Trump said.
State of play: The former president received 51% of the votes, ahead of DeSantis with 21% and Haley with 19%.
- "We've got our ticket punched out of Iowa," DeSantis said Monday night — after making a big bet on his campaign infrastructure here.
That's despite the fact that Trump spent far less time campaigning in Iowa than his competitors.
- Between January 1, 2023 and January 4, 2024 Trump held just 24 events in Iowa, to Haley's 51 and DeSantis' 99.
- He also spent much of the final week before the caucuses in court, by choice.
Flashback: This is Trump's second Iowa victory after winning in 2020.
- In 2016, however, he narrowly lost the caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). He then falsely accused Cruz of stealing the election and of deliberately spreading misinformation.
The intrigue: Early returns suggest turnout fell short of expectations, per the New York Times.
- Just over 100,000 people participated in last night's GOP caucuses.
- GOP turnout was around 187,000 voters in 2016, the first year that Trump was on Iowa caucus ballots.
What we're (not going to be) watching: Iowa residents have been absolutely bombarded with ads ahead of the 2024 caucuses, Axios' Sara Fischer reported on Monday.
- More than $124 million was spent on video and TV advertising in Iowa, and that's about to stop.
💭 Linh's post-caucus thought bubble: After the debacle of the 2020 caucuses, Monday proved that Iowans can run a smooth, albeit boring and quiet, caucus process.
- There are three tickets out of Iowa and it feels like Trump snagged all of them.
- All in all, it was an expected night.