Trump's absence in Iowa may not matter for 2024 election
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Former President Trump speaks to supporters during a Farmers for Trump campaign event on July 7 in Council Bluffs. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images
Over the weekend, a slew of GOP presidential hopefuls converged in Des Moines for the Family Leader's summit, but one candidate was noticeably absent — former President Trump.
Why it matters: This summer marks a frantic countdown to what many Republicans see as their best chance to stop Trump from romping to re-nomination, writes Axios' Zach Basu.
- Combined with absences at several other Republican events like Sen. Joni Ernst's annual Roast & Ride,Trump's weekend no-show could open up space for other candidates to stand out, Steffen Schmidt, political science professor at Iowa State, tells Axios.
State of play: The Family Leadership Summit is historically a must-attend event for conservative candidates wanting to court Iowa's evangelical vote and win the favor of caucus "kingmaker" Bob Vander Plaats.
- Trump attended while campaigning for the 2016 election.
Yes, but: Not attending this year may be a strategic move on Trump's part in order to win over independents, Schmidt says.
- The former president supports a 15-week ban on abortion, but has remained silent about Iowa's new six-week ban, which was signed into law during the summit.
- Over 60% of Iowans support legal abortions, according to a Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted March 5-8.
Zoom in: After coming in second to Ted Cruz during the 2016 Iowa Caucus, Trump isn't likely worried about campaigning in the state for '24, Schmidt says.
- National polls also show Trump as the current clear front-runner, showing he may not need to participate in political rituals like traveling across Iowa.
- "He does not really like Iowa that much," Schmidt says. "We didn't do him a great favor when he was running the first time around."
What they're saying: Vander Plaats, who typically endorses Evangelical candidates, told the Wall Street Journal recently he wants lower-performing candidates to drop out of the race so a stronger contender can step up to beat Trump.
Between the lines: A Republican anti-Trump PAC is taking advantage of Trump's animosity towards the state by launching a television ad this week highlighting his recent critiques of Gov. Kim Reynolds and her decision not to endorse any caucus candidates, the Register reports.
- Iowa Sen. Jeff Reichman (R-Montrose) announced last week he's flipping his Trump endorsement to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis following the attack on Reynolds.
The big picture: Even with a loss, Trump is still expected to place as one of the top three caucus candidates and get a "ticket" out of Iowa, further cementing him as the ringer to beat, Schmidt says.