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Data: University of Toronto; Note: Seasons are March-May (spring), June-Aug. (summer), Sept.-Nov. (fall) and Dec.-Feb. (winter); Visitors determined by counting unique mobile phones in ZIP codes with high employee density; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

Downtown Denver foot traffic still lags compared to pre-pandemic levels, despite new development projects, research initiatives and pricey plans from city officials to breathe life into the business district.

Why it matters: Even as COVID ebbs, the era of remote and hybrid work has major implications for the city center, which has historically relied on commuters who spend money before, during and after their shifts.

Driving the news: New mobile phone activity downtown was recorded at 56% of what it was pre-COVID, according to data analyzed by researchers at the University of Toronto's School of Cities.

Although leases for downtown office space are ticking up, the vacancy rate is 28% in Denver's central business district and 13% in Lower Downtown, per a recent analysis from global real estate company JLL.

The intrigue: Vehicle traffic has come roaring back — now at just 2% below 2019 levels — which ranks the city near the top nationally. But much of that happens on nights and weekends, the latest study by traffic analysis firm INRIX found.

What they're saying: "What that tells me is that a lot of people are coming into downtown for reasons other than the office," Bob Pishue, the study's lead analyst, told the Denver Business Journal.

The big picture: Cities with downtowns that almost exclusively catered to office workers, like Denver, are struggling to recover in the remote and hybrid work era, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj report.

But several U.S. cities with diverse downtowns — meaning, a healthy mixture of office space, housing, attractions and more — have nearly returned to, or even exceeded, their pre-pandemic foot traffic rates.

What's next: Denver Mayor Mike Johnston has pledged to address the decline of downtown and transform it into a space where people live, work and play.

City officials are working on a long-term plan to create a central neighborhood to bolster the existing business district with new office-to-residential conversions, retail, restaurants and entertainment.

Downtown Denver's post-pandemic recovery continues to lag behind other metros

New mobile phone activity downtown was recorded at 56% of what it was pre-COVID.

Downtown Denver foot traffic still lags compared to pre-pandemic levels, despite <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="new development projects" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2023/04/26/denver-downtown-skyline-development-skyscrapers" data-vars-content-id="01d9f833-c64c-4959-b7ce-9d720ecac2b4" data-vars-headline="Downtown Denver&#x27;s post-pandemic recovery continues to lag behind other metros" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2023/04/26/denver-downtown-skyline-development-skyscrapers" target="_self">new development projects</a>, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="research initiatives" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2023/05/22/denver-downtown-office-conversion-study-underway" data-vars-content-id="01d9f833-c64c-4959-b7ce-9d720ecac2b4" data-vars-headline="Downtown Denver&#x27;s post-pandemic recovery continues to lag behind other metros" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2023/05/22/denver-downtown-office-conversion-study-underway" target="_self">research initiatives</a> and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="pricey plans" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2022/08/30/denver-spends-millions-downtown-lodo" data-vars-content-id="01d9f833-c64c-4959-b7ce-9d720ecac2b4" data-vars-headline="Downtown Denver&#x27;s post-pandemic recovery continues to lag behind other metros" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2022/08/30/denver-spends-millions-downtown-lodo" target="_self">pricey plans</a> from city officials to breathe life into the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="business district" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2023/04/11/denver-16th-street-mall-construction-downtown-problems" data-vars-content-id="01d9f833-c64c-4959-b7ce-9d720ecac2b4" data-vars-headline="Downtown Denver&#x27;s post-pandemic recovery continues to lag behind other metros" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2023/04/11/denver-16th-street-mall-construction-downtown-problems" target="_self">business district</a>.Why it matters: Even as COVID ebbs, the era of remote and hybrid work has major implications for the city center, which has historically relied on commuters who spend money before, during and after their shifts.

News

Business

Axios Denver, anchored by John Frank and Alayna Alvarez, is here to help readers get smarter, faster on the most consequential news and developments unfolding in their own backyard.

Data: U.S. Census; Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

Despite challenging economic conditions, Colorado is seeing an increase in new businesses and bucking a national trend.

Driving the news: The state saw a record number of new business filings in the first three months of the year at nearly 56,000, according to an economic indicators report from the University of Colorado Boulder. That represents a 38% year-over-year increase.

Why it matters: New business applications are an important measure of an area's perceived economic health. If lots of people are trying to start new companies in a given state, it's a sign that they're bullish on the area's prospects.

The big picture: As of 2021, more than 66.7 million Americans worked for companies with fewer than 100 employees, and those companies posted nearly $3.6 trillion in annual payroll, census data shows.

Just over 5 million new business applications were filed nationwide in 2022, or 15.1 for every 1,000 residents, per new Census Bureau and IRS data. That's down about 7% from 2021.

Miami (40.9), Atlanta (31.3) and Orlando (28.7) took the top spots for major metro areas as ranked by new business applications per 1,000 residents in 2022.

Zoom in: Colorado's big cities drove the state into positive numbers, but a strong showing in smaller mountain communities contributed.

The Denver metro area saw nearly 65,000 applications for new businesses, or 21.6 applications per 1,000 residents in 2022, ranking it just outside the top 10 nationwide, figures show. That's up 3% from 2021.

Colorado Springs recorded about 15,000 for a rate of 19.7.

Yes, but: The number of business dissolutions increased to record highs in the first quarter of 2023, up 9% from the same period a year earlier, state data shows.

Between the lines: The boom-bust cycle is a byproduct of a state law that reduced new business filings to $1 from July 2022 through mid-May when funds expired. The cost to renew a business filing remained $50.

The intrigue: Many of the hottest spots for new business applications also have booming populations, as economic growth and population increases tend to go hand in hand.

Yes, but: A filed application is no guarantee of a healthy, thriving business to follow, but at a minimum, it's a sign of economic optimism.

Colorado sees business growth, defying national trends

New business applications are an important measure of an area's perceived economic health.

Colorado

Despite challenging <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="economic conditions" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2022/12/21/economic-colorado-state-budget-outlook" data-vars-content-id="46d41363-9633-4995-b4af-7f139d635d16" data-vars-headline="Colorado sees business growth, defying national trends" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2022/12/21/economic-colorado-state-budget-outlook" target="_self">economic conditions</a>, Colorado is seeing an increase in new businesses and bucking a national trend.Driving the news: The state saw a record number of new business filings in the first three months of the year at nearly 56,000, according to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="an economic indicators report" data-vars-click-url="https://www.colorado.edu/business/sites/default/files/attached-files/sos-q123.pdf" data-vars-content-id="46d41363-9633-4995-b4af-7f139d635d16" data-vars-headline="Colorado sees business growth, defying national trends" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.colorado.edu/business/sites/default/files/attached-files/sos-q123.pdf" target="_blank">an economic indicators report</a> from the University of Colorado Boulder. That represents a 38% year-over-year increase.

Data: CDC; Note: Change in average weekly rate at a sample of 6,000 hospitals from June 4 to July 1 and July 2-29, 2023; Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

Serious cases of COVID-19 in Colorado have remained low throughout the summer, but it may not stay that way for long.

Driving the news: COVID hospitalization rates across the state fell 11% between June and July, despite signs of a late summer wave sweeping much of the U.S., Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj report.

Yes, but: State health officials tell us COVID cases are now rising again and they have seen a "slight uptick" in hospitalizations this month. 

Colorado's current average admissions per week are hovering around 71, up from 62 hospitalizations per week in July. 

What they're saying: Doctors are watching case numbers closely, particularly as back-to-school season gears up, Carrie Horn, chief medical officer at National Jewish Health in Denver, told Fox31 earlier this month.

"I think we are going to see things increase a little bit more as school starts back up again. You are putting a lot of people and kids in classrooms together," she said.

The big picture: A new variant, EG.5 or "Eris," is now the dominant strain in the U.S., according to CDC estimates — though it's unclear if it's directly responsible for the rising numbers.

The average COVID-19 hospitalization rate nationwide rose about 17% from June to July, per the latest available CDC data.

The bottom line: There's no sign we're headed for anything like the waves of the peak pandemic era. But it's still an alarming trend, and a reminder that COVID will remain a public health concern for the foreseeable future.

Colorado health officials watching COVID cases closely as hospitalizations rise in the U.S.

New variant EG.5, "Eris," is now the dominant strain in the U.S.

Serious cases of COVID-19 in Colorado have remained low throughout the summer, but it may not stay that way for long.Driving the news: COVID hospitalization rates across the state fell 11% between June and July, despite signs of a late summer wave sweeping much of the U.S., Axios&#x27; Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="report" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/17/covid-19-cases-2023-uptick-where-why" data-vars-content-id="8edac4c9-eecb-4f5e-a469-c09fe691bd46" data-vars-headline="Colorado health officials watching COVID cases closely as hospitalizations rise in the U.S." data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/17/covid-19-cases-2023-uptick-where-why" target="_self">report</a>.

COVID

Health

Data: SmartAsset; Map: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals

You need to make at least $709,092 a year to be among the top 1% of earners in Colorado, according to a recent SmartAsset analysis of IRS data.

By the numbers: That's the seventh highest amount among all states in 2020 — and roughly $56,000 more than the national household figure of $652,657.

The big picture: The top 1% of U.S. families held more than a third of the country's total wealth in 2019, the Congressional Budget Office reported last year.

Meanwhile, "families in the bottom half ... held only 2% of total wealth," per the report.

Zoom out: Nationally, joining the 1% club is most expensive in Connecticut, where residents need to make at least $952,902 to be a member.

It's cheapest in West Virginia, where residents need to make $367,582 to be among the state's top earners.

Between the lines: Colorado's effective tax rate for high earners is 25.86%, or 11th highest in the nation.

Of course, the ultra-wealthy have myriad means of reducing their actual tax burdens.

The bottom line: The states with the highest 1% floors — Connecticut, Massachusetts, California, New Jersey and Washington — tend to be either home to or in commuting range of major tech and finance hubs, and the high-paying jobs those industries offer.

How much Colorado's top 1% of earners make

The top 1% of U.S. families held more than a third of the country's total wealth in 2019.

You need to make at least $709,092 a year to be among the top 1% of earners in Colorado, according to a recent SmartAsset <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="analysis" data-vars-click-url="https://smartasset.com/data-studies/top-1-percent-income-2023" data-vars-content-id="9457d882-0d90-4c9f-9660-e3dffe1320be" data-vars-headline="How much Colorado&#x27;s top 1% of earners make" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://smartasset.com/data-studies/top-1-percent-income-2023" target="_blank">analysis</a> of IRS data.By the numbers: That&#x27;s the seventh highest amount among all states in 2020 — and roughly $56,000 more than the national household figure of $652,657.

Despite what some may say, Denver's nightlife isn't dead.

By the numbers: 27% of bar and restaurant transactions across Denver occur between 7pm and 4am, per Square data taken from the second quarter of 2023.

That's up 5 percentage points from 2019, before COVID crashed the party, and on par with last year.

Driving the news: This comes at a time when the city has beefed up outdoor dining permanently, Larimer Square has been kept closed to cars, and more late-night options are popping up all over town.

The big picture: The data suggests Denver's late-night scene is alive and well, which jibes with the overall post-pandemic sense that people are still burning off pent-up demand for social time.

Of note: The figures only reflect transactions made on the Square platform.

Still, its use is widespread enough to suggest some broad trends.

Denver nightlife activity exceeds pre-pandemic levels

Despite what some may say about the Mile High City, its nightlife isn't dead.

Despite what <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="some may say" data-vars-click-url="https://www.westword.com/restaurants/denver-dining-after-midnight-readers-complain-about-lack-of-options-offer-suggestions-10349728" data-vars-content-id="c6076318-8746-45da-a379-1d51b6db476f" data-vars-headline="Denver nightlife activity exceeds pre-pandemic levels" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.westword.com/restaurants/denver-dining-after-midnight-readers-complain-about-lack-of-options-offer-suggestions-10349728" target="_blank">some may say</a>, Denver&#x27;s nightlife isn&#x27;t dead.By the numbers: 27% of bar and restaurant transactions across Denver occur between 7pm and 4am, per Square data taken from the second quarter of 2023.

Alex Fitzpatrick

Featured stories

How much Colorado's top 1% of earners make

Denver nightlife activity exceeds pre-pandemic levels

Colorado health officials watching COVID cases closely as hospitalizations rise in the U.S.

Downtown Denver's post-pandemic recovery continues to lag behind other metros

Colorado sees business growth, defying national trends