How Democrats swept North Texas
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Democrats won big in Texas this week, including in North Texas counties with a long history of voting red.
Why it matters: Some political science experts predicted the Democratic Party would make headway in the Lone Star State, but they did not expect Democrats to win every statewide race.
- The breakthrough can be traced to a few places, including North Texas. More than a quarter (26.7%) of all votes for Sen.-elect James Talarico came from four North Texas counties: Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton.
The big picture: The Texas shift to the left can be explained by dissatisfaction with national Republican policies and a more effective message on affordability by the Democrats rather than ideological issues, University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus tells Axios.
- Voters showed their disapproval with President Trump over rising prices and the war in Iran.
- Candidates endorsed by Trump had a bad night, including Tarrant County Judge Tim O'Hare, who lost his seat to Democrat Alisa Simmons.
By the numbers: Talarico received around 72% of the vote in Dallas County, 59% in Tarrant County, 55% in Collin County and 53% in Denton County.
- The margins were narrower in 2024, when Democrat Colin Allred ran against incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Allred carried Tarrant County by two-tenths of a percentage point and lost in Collin and Denton counties.
Flashback: National Democrats tried investing in Texas in the past but were unsuccessful.
- The enthusiasm behind Beto O'Rourke's 2018 Senate campaign encouraged local organizing efforts, Rottinghaus says.
- "Neither party, frankly, has been very willing to invest in the infrastructure. Greg Abbott was the party's infrastructure. The Democrats have more or less been trying to piece together some semblance of ground game for decades," he says.
The intrigue: North Texas has inched toward the blue column over the last two decades, first in Dallas and then outer ring suburbs, SMU political science professor Cal Jillson tells Axios.
- But this week's results showed a surprisingly competitive side from the Democrats, Jillson adds.
What we're watching: Democrats will have to work to keep their momentum, Rottinghaus says.
- And Republicans may need to talk less about cultural and ideological issues — that trends better with their core base — and get back to "kitchen table" topics including housing, insurance and health care costs and the price of gasoline, he says.
The bottom line: "Republican voters wanted candidates to talk about affordability issues and how to deal with border issues, and Republicans didn't deliver and the Democrats did," Rottinghaus says.