Houston residents vote at West Gray Metropolitan Multi-Service Center for the March primary. Photo: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
While local elections wins indicate grassroots enthusiasm, they're also of limited value for predicting statewide races in November, experts tell Axios.
Reality check: The elections Hinojosa cites (👆) are nonpartisan. The candidates are not running on the ballot as Republican or Democratic, one of the reasons the results could have limited implications for November, Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor, tells Axios.
"At the end of the day, these races are about local issues," he says. In a state that has voted for Republicans the last 30 years, elections could be different when an R or D is by the candidates' names, he said.
Also, turnout is dramatically lower in May elections — typically in the single-digits — compared to 45.9% of registered voters in the 2022 midterm election.
Follow the money: A lot more money will be at play, too. Republican statewide candidates in Texas typically have more money available than Democrats.
As of late February, per the latest campaign finance reports, Texans for Greg Abbott had $95 million on hand. Hinojosa's campaign had $617,635.
Between the lines: For Hinojosa "to have any hope, she has to create some level of belief among Democratic donors that she has some potential for victory," Jones tells Axios.
The bottom line: Abbott leads Hinojosa by 6 percentage points among registered voters in the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll.
Yes, but: That's a narrower margin than in the group's February poll, which showed Abbott leading by 10 points.
