Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are duking it out for the Republican nomination. Photos: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images and Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are essentially tied in polling ahead of the March 2026 primary.
Driving the news: The two Republicans have run statewide campaigns for years, putting them at a polling advantage over U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston.
Hunt joined the GOP primary to challenge Cornyn.
By the numbers: Paxton is supported by 34% of Republican primary voters, compared to Cornyn's 33% and Hunt's 22%, per a University of Houston-Texas Southern University poll conducted in late September.
Meanwhile in the Democratic primary, Talarico (42%) trails former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas (46%).
The intrigue: U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas, who hasn't said she's running for Senate, leads in a four-way hypothetical matchup.
In the hypothetical, Crockett has 31% of the votes in a Democratic primary. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke and Talarico have 25% of the votes, and Allred has 13%.
The bottom line: O'Rourke's unconventional barnstorming campaign in 2018 got him close to unseating U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, while Allred's approach of concentrating on big cities in 2024 ended with an 8.5-point defeat.
