Texas winter could be wetter than average
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North Texas is forecast to have near-average temperatures but above-average rainfall this winter, per a new outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Why it matters: Severe weather has caused billions of dollars in property damage in Texas in recent years. The losses have led many insurance companies to increase premiums and cut their coverage.
- Texas was among the states with the steepest premium hikes between 2022 and 2023.
State of play: El Niño, which occurs about once every two to seven years, can reshape weather patterns around the world by bringing drought for tens of millions of people and floods to others.
- El Niño typically most affects North American weather patterns during the winter months. It's currently rated as strong and forecast to intensify further.
- NOAA says there's a greater than 55% chance that this El Niño will be "strong" from January to March. There's a 35% chance that it will be "historically strong" for the November-January season.
Zoom in: NOAA predicts the Dallas area will get 40% more rainfall than usual.
- The precipitation is projected to improve Texas' current drought conditions.
Between the lines: It's not yet clear how record warm global average air and sea temperatures will tip the scales in terms of air temperatures and precipitation trends this winter, though forecasts did take it into account.
- 2023 is on track to become the hottest on record globally, with every month since April setting a record for the warmest ocean temperatures yet recorded.