Jan 3, 2023 - Real Estate

Experts say home price growth will flatten in Dallas-Fort Worth

Illustration of the year 2022, with a keyhole for a zero, which zooms in so you can see through the keyhole to the year 2023.

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

Experts predict home prices will drop slightly in Dallas-Fort Worth in 2023 and flatten out over the next few years as part of a correction in the real estate market. Here's what they're saying.

1. The market is correcting, not crashing.

Higher interest rates are the main driver of the recent slowdown in the real estate market, says Adam Perdue, an economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.

  • "But it's also a little bit of a return to seasonality," Perdue tells Axios.

2. The year will get off to a slow start.

In general, the market will be slower than in the first half of 2022, predicts Taylor Walcik, president of the MetroTex Association of Realtors.

  • "Consumers are more mindful of the economy, stock market, and looming recession fears and are not as motivated to make big financial decisions," Walcik tells Axios.

Yes, but: "There will always be people that absolutely must buy or sell homes, and that is what will be making up most of the housing market in 2023," Walcik says.

3. Price growth will moderate.

Drastic falls are unexpected, Perdue says.

  • "Over the next few years, we definitely are going to see a flattening in the rate of price increases on a year-over-year basis," Perdue says.

4. Interest rates will still pose challenges.

Until inflation gets under control, "we can expect to have relatively higher rates than we've gotten used to," Perdue predicts.

  • That means buyers may find themselves with higher payments than they were expecting even as prices level off, Perdue says.

5. Opportunities will arise for buyers and sellers alike.

Buyers will reap the benefits of increased inventory and a more equitable process, while sellers will continue to see an increase in their equity as values keep appreciating through 2023, MetroTex officer Ashley Gentry tells Axios.


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