Texas congressional swing districts now more partisan
Texas is home to nine of the 17 former swing districts that are now more favorable for Republicans after redistricting, according to the new 2022 Cook Partisan Voter Index and analysis from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman.
Why it matters: Republicans had the power to draw maps in more states than Democrats, including in Texas, helping them solidify congressional seats they already hold and potentially pick up more in November, reports Axios' Stef W. Kight.
Zoom in: North Texas has three of the swing districts that were redrawn to be more partisan, including Texas' 32nd Congressional District, held by Democrat Colin Allred.
- Texas' 3rd Congressional District in Plano and McKinney has moved nearly seven points more Republican.
- Of note: Rep. Van Taylor dropped out of the GOP runoff to retain that seat after his affair became public.
- And Texas' 6th Congressional District, which includes Midlothian and Waxahachie, is predicted to be 10 points more Republican.
By the numbers: Seven competitive seats, including three in Texas, were drawn to be more favorable for Democrats. All of them are now too Democratic-leaning to be considered swing districts, according to Cook's criteria.
- Wasserman points out that even those bluer seats were drawn mostly to allow for more solidly Republican seats nearby.
- Texas leans five points more Republican, according to this year's report.
Yes, but: Texas is far from the reddest state on the map. Wyoming, for example, is 25 points more Republican — the highest of any right-leaning states.
- Residents in neighboring Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma are also more likely to vote Republican than the Lone Star State.
The bottom line: After redistricting, the number of hyper-competitive U.S. House seats declined from 51 to 45 — Cook Political Report's lowest count ever.
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