Georgia at high risk of a recession, economist warns

• Their problems are driven largely by a mix of slowing immigration, increasing tariffs and federal job cuts, Zandi argues.
• The analysis is based on Zandi's calculation of where things stood in the economy at the end of August — perhaps more useful now, as more data measures go dark with the federal government shut down.

What they're saying: Nationally, "my takeaway is not that the economy is in recession, but it's pretty darn close," Zandi tells Axios.

How it works: He created an index looking at state-level jobs data, as well as other inputs, including modeled industrial production, personal income and housing starts.

• The idea was to mimic what the eight-member National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee does when it determines if the economy is in a recession.
• While employment is the most important indicator, it is only one of many, Zandi tells Axios.

Zoom in: The states most impacted are the ones more reliant on agriculture and manufacturing, like the Peach State. Those sectors are more likely to be impacted by tariff increases, Zandi says.

• The immigration crackdown is suppressing growth as well. Georgia has been one of the country's hot spots for ICE immigration arrests.

The other side: In a statement to Axios, a spokesperson for Gov. Brian Kemp said Georgia's unemployment ranks below the national average.

• The state's business climate and fiscal policies make Georgia "well-positioned to continue that positive momentum," they said.

Between the lines: The states that received a negative index ranking landed in the recession bucket; the rest are either still expanding or "treading water."

• For those categories, Zandi says he ultimately made some judgment calls after looking at more inputs, including credit card delinquency rates, credit scores, port activity and migration.

Flashback: In February, Georgia state economist Robert Buschman told state lawmakers that increased tariffs posed the greatest threat to Georgia's economy. Exports make up 6% of the state's gross domestic product, he said.

Reality check: Like NBER's recession call, this is a subjective assessment. But in this case, it's just one economist doing the ranking.

• Overall, the economy is not in a recession, and the national unemployment rate — at least in August — was still relatively low.

States doing well are ones still seeing robust population growth, particularly Texas and Florida.

What to watch: New York and California, both in the "treading water" category, could decide which way the national economy goes.

• Both are being kept afloat by a soaring stock market, which is buoying the wealthy households that are more prevalent in those states.