Compared to 1991-2020 averages; Data: NWS; Map: Axios Visuals
Atlanta could be in for a winter that is warmer and drier than usual, according to the annual NOAA winter outlook released last week.
Why it matters: The more mild conditions favored in Georgia and throughout the Southeast follow long-term trends of warmer winters.
How it works: NOAA's climate outlooks are probabilistic, which means they communicate the odds of a particular outcome, rather than predicting definitive conditions.
Therefore, the projections show strong odds of a milder-than-average winter from the southern tier of the U.S. to parts of the East Coast; higher odds of drought expansion into the Southwest; above-average odds for a colder, snowier winter than normal in the Pacific Northwest.
Zoom in: The outlook calls for a weak La Niña event this winter. La Niña is an ocean and atmosphere cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It can influence the path of winter storms in the U.S.
Weather patterns can be easier to predict in years with a strong La Niña driving storm patterns.
A milder-than-average forecast for our region is in line with typical La Niña winters.
Yes, but: Because this La Niña is expected to be weaker, the outlook is less certain. Temperatures and precipitation could vary widely from week to week.
Other factors, including human-caused climate change, could could also play a key role in influencing the winter.