Winter outlook projects warmer, drier conditions in Georgia
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Atlanta could be in for a winter that is warmer and drier than usual, according to the annual NOAA winter outlook released last week.
Why it matters: The more mild conditions favored in Georgia and throughout the Southeast follow long-term trends of warmer winters.
How it works: NOAA's climate outlooks are probabilistic, which means they communicate the odds of a particular outcome, rather than predicting definitive conditions.
- Therefore, the projections show strong odds of a milder-than-average winter from the southern tier of the U.S. to parts of the East Coast; higher odds of drought expansion into the Southwest; above-average odds for a colder, snowier winter than normal in the Pacific Northwest.
Zoom in: The outlook calls for a weak La Niña event this winter. La Niña is an ocean and atmosphere cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It can influence the path of winter storms in the U.S.
- Weather patterns can be easier to predict in years with a strong La Niña driving storm patterns.
- A milder-than-average forecast for our region is in line with typical La Niña winters.
Yes, but: Because this La Niña is expected to be weaker, the outlook is less certain. Temperatures and precipitation could vary widely from week to week.
- Other factors, including human-caused climate change, could could also play a key role in influencing the winter.