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The Senate Finance Committee's markup of the tax bill yesterday fixated on new tables from the Joint Committee on Taxation showing that, even before the lower individual rates expire, people with lower incomes would pay higher taxes.

Expand chart
Data: The Joint Committee on Taxation; Note: Nov. 9 proposal didn't include a repeal of the individual mandate or sunsets of the individual rates. Nov. 14 proposal included both. Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

The bottom line: Economists say this is mostly because the revised bill repeals the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate — so some people wouldn't buy health coverage, and therefore wouldn't get the tax credits to subsidize it.

Be smart: What this table is showing is lower-income people's taxes going up, in JCT's calculations, because some of them are no longer receiving the ACA premium subsidies. "This is all negative taxes disappearing. It's not like they have to write a check to the government in any way," said Doug Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum.

Go deeper: While there are other serious policy questions regarding repealing the mandate, Republicans do have a point when they say these people are choosing to give up their health coverage.

  • People receiving premium subsidies — generally people earning around $12,000–$50,000 a year — would be largely insulated from premium hikes following the mandate repeal, and therefore would be unlikely to drop coverage over affordability concerns.
  • "For people currently receiving premium tax credits, it really would be within their control whether to continue getting insured or not," said Larry Levitt of the Kaiser Family Foundation.
  • The biggest exception is if insurers pull out of markets, citing instability, and leave counties without any exchange plans.

Another big thing the tables show are higher rates in 2027. That's because the individual and small business tax cuts expire beginning in 2026, so unless Congress extends them, people will see a big tax hike when the lower rates sunset.

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Go deeper

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Health: WHO: AstraZeneca vaccine must be evaluated on "more than a press release."
  2. Politics: McConnell temporarily halts in-person lunches for GOP caucus.
  3. Economy: Safety nets to disappear in DecemberAmazon hires 1,400 workers a day throughout pandemic.
  4. Education: U.S. public school enrollment drops as pandemic persists.
  5. Cities: Surge in cases forces San Francisco to impose curfew — Los Angeles County issues stay-at-home order, limits gatherings.
  6. Sports: NFL bans in-person team activities Monday, Tuesday due to COVID-19 surge — NBA announces new coronavirus protocols.
  7. World: London police arrest more than 150 during anti-lockdown protests — Thailand, Philippines sign deal with AstraZeneca for vaccine.

Tony Hsieh, longtime Zappos CEO, dies at 46

Tony Hsieh. Photo: FilmMagic/FilmMagic

Tony Hsieh, the longtime ex-chief executive of Zappos, died on Friday after being injured in a house fire, his lawyer told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He was 46.

The big picture: Hsieh was known for his unique approach to management, and following the 2008 recession his ongoing investment and efforts to revitalize the downtown Las Vegas area.

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
16 hours ago - Economy & Business

The unicorn stampede is coming

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Airbnb and DoorDash plan to go public in the next few weeks, capping off a very busy year for IPOs.

What's next: You ain't seen nothing yet.

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