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A record-setting storm lashed the U.K., France and Italy with heavy rains, powerful winds and flooding on Thursday, with its deadly effects extending into other parts of Western Europe.

The latest: At least 12 deaths across Europe have been tied to the storm as of Friday evening local time, according to multiple reports.

The greatest weather impacts were felt in southwestern England, the U.K. island of Jersey in the English Channel, northwestern France and Italy's Tuscany region.

Large areas of Tuscany were hit by record rains and heavy flooding that swept away cars, shutdown highways and knocked out power to thousands of homes and buildings.

Power outages and downed trees were reported in Brittany, France's northwesternmost region, and 82 flood warnings were in effect in the U.K. due to the storm.

People are rescued from their holiday chalets by fire and rescue at Freshwater Beach Holiday Park, on November 02, 2023 in Burton Bradstock, Dorset. 

People are rescued from their holiday homes in Burton Bradstock, Dorset, southwest England. Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

The big picture: Dubbed "Storm Ciarán" by the U.K. Met Office, the storm rapidly developed over the North Atlantic Ocean, aided by a cold front and powerful jet stream winds of up to 200 mph.

Its rate of intensification qualify it as a bomb cyclone, as its minimum air pressure plunges.

Between the lines: The storm set a record for the lowest mean sea level air pressure on record in England and Wales during the month of November. The record in England dated back to 1916, according to the Met Office. 

The tight pressure gradient associated with Storm Ciarán brought hurricane-force winds of up to 100 mph to southern reaches of the British Isles, and even more intense winds, across the English Channel into northwestern France, where alerts were in effect for "violent" winds.

Along the coast of southwest England and western France, wave heights of up to 50 feet have struck coastal areas and caused flooding.

State of play: Storm Ciarán followed intense Storm Babet, which struck some of the same regions last week, leading to significant flooding in the U.K. in particular.

A red warning, the highest alert level, was in effect Thursday for Jersey, which is located near France, where winds of up to 102 mph were recorded.

Amber warnings, the second-highest level, were downgraded across affected parts of the U.K to the lowest warning level, yellow, by the evening.

In France, the country's weather agency issued three red warnings for parts of the northwest because of the threat of violent winds and 30 amber alerts across much of the rest of the country due to risks from an inundation of rain and coastal flooding, among other hazards. 

By the evening, amber warnings remained in effect for six administrative regions in northern and southwestern France.

MétéoFrance reported wind gusts of up to 120 mph in Brittany, noting that records had been set. This may have been related to a phenomenon known as a "sting jet," which leads to localized peaks in wind speeds, and tend to be located to the southwest of deepening low pressure areas.

Context: A mix of ingredients fueled Ciarán, including a powerful, 200-mph jet stream at about 30,000 feet above the surface, an initial area of low pressure along a cold front and record-warm North Atlantic waters.

Unlike hurricanes, which feast off of very warm waters, non-tropical storms like Ciarán thrive off of sharp contrasts in air masses across short distances. 

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional developments.

Deadly Storm Ciarán lashes Europe with heavy rain and flooding

The storm that slammed much of Western Europe became a bomb cyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean.

Uprooted trees seen in the U.K .on Nov. 2. Photo:  Christian Keenan/Getty Images

extreme weather

Extreme weather

Climate change

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

Ambassador Pa'olelei Luteru, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), has a message for larger, wealthier countries ahead of the UN climate summit later this month.

The big picture: Luteru, who is Samoa's ambassador to both the UN and the U.S., knows something about climate change that many other climate diplomats don't. Climate impacts the small island countries are experiencing now will eventually affect even the wealthiest nations. 

What he's saying: "I can guarantee it will come for you, too," barring effective actions to cut emissions, Luteru told Axios in an interview. "By helping small island developing states, you are helping everyone."

The ambassador chairs a coalition of some of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, particularly to sea level rise and stronger tropical cyclones. 

For this group of nations, holding global climate change to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels through the end of the century is a matter of survival. 

However, currently the world is on pace for warming by at least 2.4°C (4.32°F) compared to preindustrial levels, which could lead to enough sea level rise to submerge large parts of his country. 

Between the lines: Luteru discussed the alliance's goals heading into the COP28 summit in Dubai. 

He noted that geopolitics will come into play in these talks, more than at past climate meetings. This is especially true when climate finance is concerned, a top agenda item in Dubai. 

The ambassador said the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel are taking some focus away from climate change and may be a "distraction," particularly given the billions these conflicts are diverting. 

Typically, AOSIS teams up with other blocs of countries pushing for shared goals at climate summits. 

In advance of COP28, AOSIS has been working especially closely with the EU, and there is the possibility that other partnerships will be formed as well, he said. 

coalition of some of the most vulnerable countries in the world

world is on pace for at least 2.4°C (4.32°F) of warming

Small islands warn larger economies: climate change "will come for you"

The small island countries carry a moral voice, and a warning.

Illustration for story about research into ocean warming

COP28

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

High stakes talks beginning this weekend between U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, could pave the way for a smoother United Nations climate summit in Dubai later this month. 

Why it matters: The world's two largest economies are also the world's two largest emitters. The focus is on China in particular, in the hopes that any agreement could help alter the severity and pace of human-caused climate change. 

The discussions will be a test of Kerry's push within the Biden administration to separate climate change from other issues on which the U.S. and China vehemently disagree, from trade policy to Taiwan. 

The talks, set to last Saturday through Monday at Sunnylands resort in Rancho Mirage, California, also come amid media reports that Xie may step down soon after COP28. 

Zoom in: China is a powerhouse when it comes to renewable energy production and deployment, but it is still the world's largest coal consumer and is approving new coal-fired power plants at a rapid clip. 

Kerry has been outspoken in his concerns, given coal is a particularly carbon-intensive fuel and new plants are unlikely to be shut down for many years.  

Cutting the deployment of new coal plants is likely to be a topic of discussion at COP28, where countries will jockey over language targeting fossil fuels.

The intrigue: China's carbon emissions peak will have an outsized influence on when global emissions will stop climbing, and when they begin to decline. 

The later the peak date and start of the decline, the greater the warming that will occur, along with the effects that come with it.

China has committed to a peak date of no later than 2030 but is likely to beat that significantly. 

What they're saying: "The success of the global climate process needs the U.S. and China to talk to each other," said Li Shuo, a policy advisor at Greenpeace. 

What we're watching: The outcome of the meeting, and potentially additional bilateral negotiations after that, is likely to be a joint statement on U.S.-China climate cooperation. 

There are many questions, though, over what such a statement will contain. 

Some groundwork for the meeting may have been covered by another Democratic politician, California Gov. Gavin Newsom. He visited China last week on a climate-focused trip, which included a rare meeting with President Xi Jinping.

One topic that is likely to come up is China's plan to cut planet-warming methane emissions, which is slated to come out soon, having been agreed to during discussions between the two countries in 2021.

Flashback: During the Obama administration, a joint statement helped pave the way for successful talks in Paris in 2015. However, given heightened tensions between the U.S. and China, steps the countries may commit to this time are likely to be more timid. 

The bottom line: "The question now is whether climate change can remain as a resilient topic between the two most powerful countries on this planet. The next few weeks will tell," Shuo said.

US-China climate talks could affect pace, severity of climate change

The talks between John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart may lead to a joint statement.

Photo illustration of John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua with a coal field and smokestack.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photos: AFP, Fabrice Coffrini/AFP, Bloomberg, CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

China

Global ocean heat content anomaly

Data: Cheng, et al., 2023, "Another year of record heat for the oceans"; Note: For the upper 2,000 meters of ocean; Chart: Axios Visuals

A new study warns the Earth's climate is on track to warm significantly more than shown by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) projections.  

Driving the news: The paper, published Thursday in the peer-reviewed journal Oxford Open Climate Change, is a synthesis of new and previous discoveries across multiple fields. It is peppered with policy prescriptions, unusual for a scientific paper.

The stark warning comes from ex-NASA scientist James Hansen, who is the lead author of the report. In 1988, he famously and accurately warned that human-caused warming would soon emerge from the background noise of natural variability.

Why it matters: Should the paper's authors be proven correct this time, the globe can expect more severe extreme weather events, species losses and sea level rise than currently projected.

The paper lands as the planet endures its warmest year on record, with sizzling new benchmarks set on land and sea. Each month since May has set consecutive new milestones.

Yes, but: Hansen has long straddled the line between scientist and activist. In the new paper, he recommends pursuing a range of policy options, from putting a price on carbon to geoengineering.

In this study, he calls on climate scientists to embrace the responsibilities medical professionals have to their patients. He argues they have been too reticent and conservative to lay out the full ramifications of warming.

"We are in the early phase of a climate emergency," Hansen writes.

What they found: The study finds that the warming resulting from doubling carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, also known as equilibrium climate sensitivity, is higher than the current consensus view. 

The authors calculated a total warming of 4.8°C (8.6°F) for a doubling of CO2, above the IPCC's most recent estimate of 3°C (5.4°F), though not discordant with some previously published work.

The paper finds that global warming has been accelerating since 2010 and that this will soon become clear in the data. Specifically, it notes that a warming rate of 0.18°C (0.32°F) per decade, recorded between 1970-2010, will spike to 0.27°C (0.48°F) per decade after 2010.

It concludes the quickening pace of warming is not well-handled by computer models.

Between the lines: Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, who was not involved in the new study, told Axios that research varies on estimating the amount of warming the world would see due to a doubling of CO2 concentrations. 

He adds the new study's estimate is on the high side of previous research. 

Hansen's findings also put forward that the planet's energy imbalance is growing, with more and more heat trapped in Earth's atmosphere.

The intrigue: Hansen and his coauthors argue that immediate and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions alone won't be sufficient to forestall dangerous levels of climate change.

The paper opens the door to endorsing geoengineering, referred to as "climate restoration" in the paper, for a short period of time. This involves deliberately trying to counter warming's effects by modifying the climate in other ways.

The other side: While there are indications that climate change has sped up, some scientists disagree quite strongly with Hansen's findings.

Hausfather wrote this week that although the warming rate has clearly sped up since the 1970s, it is within the range anticipated by climate models.

Model simulations, he found, depict warming to be about 40% faster in the 2015-2030 period, compared to 1970-2014.

What they're saying: Michael Mann, a climate researcher at the University of Pennsylvania, told Axios via email that he doesn't believe the authors "have made the case for any of the major claims...or that climate models are getting this wrong." 

He noted that ocean heat content, a key indicator of the planet's heat budget, "shows a very steady, rather than accelerating, increase."

Yet Katharine Hayhoe, a climate researcher and chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy, told Axios the study is an effective communications tool, since it tells people not only how serious things are, but also some possible solutions. 

She noted reservations about his endorsement of solar radiation management, a geoengineering technique that could decrease the amount of solar radiation coming into the atmosphere.

The bottom line: "The fact that he puts the solutions right there in the abstract is actually exactly what needs to be done psychologically in the way that we communicate about climate change," Hayhoe said in an interview. 

"If we tell people how bad it is, which it is, but we don't tell people what to do about it, then you can have the whole world worried and nothing will happen.

New study warns climate is warming even faster than some think

A former NASA climate scientist believes the climate is warming faster than conventional wisdom suggests.

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The coral at a reef in the Florida Keys shows signs of bleaching. Photo: Carolyn Cole/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Coral reefs

Set against the backdrop of heightened Middle Eastern tensions, the United Arab Emirates is hosting a series of key meetings this week to prepare for the upcoming UN Climate Summit in Dubai.

Why it matters: Known as the Pre-COP, the meetings are attracting more than 50 senior government ministers and delegations from around the world to Abu Dhabi, including U.S. climate envoy John Kerry.

The big picture: Major agenda items remain to be settled ahead of the summit, ranging from the basic workings of a fund to compensate developing nations for climate damages to commitments from the oil and gas industry to cut methane emissions.

The "loss and damage" fund, agreed to at COP27 in Egypt after years of wrangling, is supposed to be operational or close to it post-COP28 in Dubai, which begins Nov. 30.

Deep divisions exist over the basic architecture, including where the fund would be located and who would be responsible for putting money into it. After countries deadlocked on these negotiations, the talks will go into overtime in a hastily scheduled, multiday committee meeting this week.

Of note: Loss and damage talks will take place without one of the most experienced and dogged advocates for climate justice, Saleemul Huq, who passed away over the weekend. 

A climate scientist from Bangladesh, he had attended every previous COP and was on COP28's advisory committee. 

A forceful advocate for developing country perspectives, he advanced the topics of climate resilience, adaptation and loss and damage.

Climate advocates, scientists and diplomats paid tribute to him on social media.

The intrigue: The Middle East conflict threatens to make consensus-based decision-making at the summit more difficult. It also casts doubt on how many world leaders will descend on Dubai on Dec. 1 and 2.

A regional crisis could place more of an emphasis on energy security compared with emissions reduction, which could scuttle a push for fossil fuel phaseout language in any agreement.

What they're saying: Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, who will preside over COP28, nodded to the regional discord in opening remarks this morning.

"In such challenging times, with tension and discord between countries and within countries, our responsibility is only greater," he said. "There are too many things dividing our world at this moment. Let this process prove that multilateralism still works."

"I know there are strong views about the idea of including language on fossil fuels and renewables in the negotiated text," al-Jaber said, calling for "common ground" and "consensus" on this and other issues. 

The bottom line: The Pre-COP is policymakers' last chance to pave the way for a productive COP28.

countries deadlocked on these negotiations

A critical meeting before the big COP28 summit will tackle thorny issues

This week, Abu Dhabi will play host to over 50 top-level officials at a pre-COP summit.

Photo illustration of a meeting table over a photo of the Dubai skyline, with circles and lines around them

For an apple a day to keep the doctor away, the fruits have to be resilient to climate change.

Why it matters: Newly patented variations of apples that thrive in warm weather, developed by a University of Maryland researcher, could be a solution to stunted production in recent years.

"We [Maryland] have the heat, we have the humidity and we have more diseases," said Christopher Walsh, a plant science and landscape architecture professor, who developed the variants.  

"Because it's hot and a long growing season, the trees grow a lot more."

Threat level: Worldwide and U.S. apple output have both decreased, the Washington Post reports. 

Hotter climates and heat waves are one of several challenges to the crop, in addition to labor shortages and fire blight, a bacterial disease. 

Walsh's new apple variations, currently called MD-TAP1 (a child of Gold Rush apples) and MD-TAP2 (a child of Fuji apples), address all of these challenges. TAP stands for Tree Architecture Project.

What they did: Walsh's team changed the architecture and genetics of the trees so that they're smaller than most commercial apple trees. 

The surviving trees are essentially resistant to the threat of fire blight, which has destroyed apple crops in the U.S.

Walsh finds a patentable apple variety for every thousand or so trees that he plants seedlings of, he said. Before the two this year, he previously patented one other heat-tolerant variety that was grown in a different way. 

The intrigue: These variations grow on manageable trees that require less pruning than usual, which is what growers recently have been yearning for.

"Our architecture projects are trying to get as much of the fruit into the sun as possible," he said. "So it's got fewer limbs that need to be removed and they grow in a way where it becomes manageable for the grower."

What's next: The apples won't be on supermarket shelves for at least a couple years, Walsh said. 

A commercial nursery has to buy the crop and grow trees, or his team has to run its own nursery operation, before the apples are available to consumers. 

Go deeper: A startup is measuring ripeness to deliver perfect fruit

A startup is measuring ripeness to deliver perfect fruit

How about them apples? Researchers create heat-resistant varieties

This could be a solution to stunted production the industry has faced in recent years.

15 bright red apples in a cardboard box placed on grass 

Apples of the MD-TAP2 variety picked on Oct. 26. Photo: Christopher Walsh

The damage and death toll are becoming clearer in Acapulco, where Category 5 Hurricane Otis struck early Wednesday.

Why it matters: The hurricane is likely to be one of the most expensive extreme weather disasters in Mexico's history, and its unexpected and explosive intensification through landfall is causing some soul-searching in the risk management community, as it is in meteorology circles.

Zoom in: The storm killed at least 27 people, and Mexico has deployed 10,000 troops to help the region with storm recovery. However, their arrival has been slow.

Walls were ripped off buildings, turning them into twisted metal hulks. Virtually every power pole was knocked down, and survivors had harrowing stories.

According to Steve Bowen, chief science officer at reinsurer Gallagher Re, Otis' toll will be measured in the billions, given the high-end commercial and residential real estate damage.

CoreLogic, a property insights company, estimates the insurable damage from wind hazards alone to be between $10 to $15 billion.

Between the lines: Bowen is taking notice of the growing risk from stronger tropical cyclones, including storms that ramp up quickly.

"From a scientific perspective we are reaching the point where it is less and less surprising to see bouts of rapid intensification by tropical cyclones as the oceans continue to warm," he said. 

"What remains most shocking and concerning is the rapid intensification occurring up to the point of landfall and subsequently affecting highly populated areas," he said.

One lesson of this nightmare storm, Bowen said, is to build with stronger storms in mind, as a way to prepare for more meteorological surprises like  Otis.

"As climate change research continues to conclude that we should expect more high-end tropical cyclones — and this research is being regularly validated — we need to be making smart decisions" readying for this growing risk, he said.

"This includes a smarter approach to how and where we build, making strategic investments around infrastructure modernization, and ensuring more financial protection for citizens in the aftermath of events."

The intrigue: In the meteorology community, there is soul-searching going on about the forecast miss. 

"Every one of these events takes a toll and you take a piece of it with you going forward," Michael Brennan, the director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, told Axios in an interview. 

"But that's what builds your experience, makes you a better forecaster, makes you a better communicator. And it certainly reinforces the importance of everything that we do here."

How Hurricane Otis shocked forecasters in a "nightmare scenario"

In photos: Hurricane Otis devastates Acapulco, Mexico

How Hurricane Otis shocked forecasters in a "nightmare scenario

The costly aftermath of Hurricane Otis

The Category 5 Hurricane Otis has left death and costly destruction in its wake.

People walk on a street amid storm damage in Acapulco, Mexico after Hurricane Otis.

People walk near two damaged buildings after hurricane Otis hit Acapulco on Oct. 26. Photo: Oscar Guerrero Ramirez/Getty Images

Hurricane Otis' max sustained winds

Data: NOAA; Graphic: Rahul Mukherjee/Axios

Hurricane Otis' extremely rapid intensification — so close to the Mexican coast — was one of the biggest, most high-stakes hurricane forecasting failures in years. 

The big picture: The storm's leap from a tropical storm on early Tuesday to a Category 5 storm near midnight highlighted what climate change, combined with weather and climate variability, can do to a storm if conditions are right. 

They also showed a rarely seen weakness in modern weather forecasting: a completely unforeseen transformation of a tropical cyclone within 24 hours of landfall. NHC forecasters termed the event a "nightmare scenario."

In this age of computer models, sail drones, crewed hurricane hunters and 5-day forecasts, many people are not accustomed to a forecast bust like this one. 

Climate change is one of the factors, but not the only one, that may have come into play.

All Climate change stories