States test climate tools as Paris goal slips

• While states can't replace the federal government, they retain control over consequential parts of America's energy system — and tools to cut emissions from them.

Zoom out: The United Nations Environment Program's most optimistic scenario has warming peaking around 1.8°C before declining. Limiting the size and duration of that overshoot requires immediate emissions cuts, including methane reductions, it says.

How it works: Karen Palmer, a senior fellow and director of Resources for the Future's Electric Power Program, pointed to broad clean-energy standards, streamlined siting and permitting, and utility rules that encourage more efficient use of the existing grid as powerful state levers.

• She pushed back on the idea that all the electricity sector's "low-hanging fruit" has been picked, noting that potentially economic clean-energy projects remain stuck behind siting, permitting and interconnection barriers.

Case in point: Danny Cullenward, an economist and lawyer and senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, said California demonstrates both the potential and pitfalls of state action.

• He called its battery deployment an "extraordinary success," partly traceable to the state requiring deployment before grid-scale storage became mainstream. Batteries are now displacing some gas generation throughout the day and night, he said.
• California's battery fleet has grown from less than 700 MW in 2019 to more than 21,000 MW today. Clean energy supplied 100% of demand on the state's main grid for at least part of 279 days last year, the governor's office told Axios.
• However, Cullenward argued California's biofuel policies show the pitfalls, saying they've become captured by industry interests and waste scarce climate funding. The governor's office did not respond to a request for comment on that criticism.

Yes, but: The state climate landscape looks different than it did when Trump first withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2017.

• Some states have scaled back or delayed earlier climate commitments as concerns about costs and rising electricity demand collide with emissions goals.
• Palmer pointed to RFF analysis finding Virginia could use carbon-market revenues to lower household electricity bills while preserving incentives for power plants to cut emissions.

Transportation remains a tougher challenge. Cullenward said federal rollbacks of EV incentives and legal challenges to California's authority to set vehicle standards mean many of the state's short-term tools "aren't really there right now."

• California is still using tools it controls: Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) recently signed six bills aimed at speeding EV charger deployment and expanding charging access, including by streamlining permitting and reducing barriers at apartments and mixed-use developments.
• Longer term, Cullenward pointed to transit-oriented housing and reducing car dependency as important state and local levers.

The big picture: The question isn't whether states can fill the federal climate policy void. They can't. It's how much progress they can make with the policies they still control.

• The U.S. Climate Alliance —formed by California, New York and Washington after Trump's first Paris withdrawal — now comprises 23 Democratic governors and one Republican representing 60% of the U.S. economy, all still pursuing Paris-aligned emissions reductions.

What's next: The gas utility system is the "next sort of frontier," Cullenward said.

• States regulate both electric and gas utilities, but as buildings and other services electrify, fewer customers could be left paying for the fixed infrastructure of the gas network.
• That risks leaving stranded infrastructure and spiraling costs for customers who remain on gas, he said.

Flashback: Trump signs order to pull U.S. out of Paris Agreement again