The issues that whipsawed stocks in 2018 — namely trade and the Fed — aren't going anywhere this year, leaving few catalysts to push stocks to new highs.
The big picture:Analysts overwhelmingly predict the historic bull run has at least one more year to go. The analysts who cut their expectations say they did so because of recent market volatility. "The world’s largest banks and money managers are gearing up for the last hurrah of one of the longest bull markets in history," Bloomberg writes.
It's the first trading day of the year, and in just the first hour of trading, the S&P 500 fell 0.82%. That also means that after an hour the S&P 500 was down 0.82% YTD. There are about 1,640 trading hours in the day, which means that on an annualized basis, the S&P is down, um ... 99.99986%.
Be smart: As we head into an arbitrary new year, then, it's worth being aware of some of the other arbitrary conventions that govern a lot of talk about markets.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is among several federal government agencies affected by the shutdown. This means that the promising slate of early 2019 IPOs could be delayed, as no one is currently working to declare new registrations effective or to provide feedback on confidential filings.
The bottom line, via noted IPO adviser Lise Buyer: "While timing is always uncertain, this makes it even more so. And of course companies that had planned to file early in the new year will need to wait for things to fire back up before they can submit their initial documents. Basically, it puts the whole filing part of the process on hold."
Cable and satellite companies are struggling to reach deals with TV channels over how much they should have to pay for the content those channels provide.
Why it matters: These disputes, driven by a shrinking traditional TV market, are leading to more programming blackouts for consumers, and could be forcing some smaller, niche cable channels out of business altogether.
