National

Defying poor pre-election polling, Palang Pracharat, the Thai army's proxy party, performed well in this past weekend's elections, the country's first since 2011. However, its success came amid low turnout, claims of widespread fraud and irregularities, and repeated bungling of results by Thailand's Election Commission.

Why it matters: Thailand, a U.S. treaty ally, is now likely to remain alone among middle- and upper-income countries as a place where the armed forces wield dominant power, leaving it in league with poorer and more fragile states like Egypt, Pakistan and Mauritania.

Details: Palang Pracharat apparently captured the second-most constituency seats in the lower house of parliament. (Final, confirmed results have not yet been announced.) Along with allies in the senate, whose members were chosen by the armed forces, Palang Pracharat and coalition parties likely will be able to lead the country, with Prayuth, who led Thailand's 2014 coup, assuming the position of prime minister and running the civilian government.

The armed forces' dominance of the senate was entrenched in a new constitution that also made it easier for Palang Pracharat to control the lower house.

The party drew support from older voters and residents of Bangkok — and received an eleventh-hour implicit endorsement from the supposedly (but not really) apolitical monarch.

Where it stands: The results do not point toward future stability.

Puea Thai, a populist anti-junta party, appears to have won the most constituency seats in the lower house, and the anti-junta parties collectively won the largest share of the popular vote. In a system with a truly elected senate, fairer election laws or a better climate for political activism, they would have had the first chance to form a government and pick a prime minister.

There will be a struggle between Palang Pracharat and the opposition. If Palang Pracharat forms a government — relying largely on its army-installed senate allies — it could infuriate supporters of the anti-junta coalition and undercut the perceived legitimacy of the new government.

The standoff could worsen if Palang Pracharat forms a government comprising supporters in both houses, while Puea Thai and its allies control the lower house, all but ensuring political gridlock.

What to watch: Prayuth has proven an irascible, thin-skinned leader. If he becomes prime minister, he would have to run the country in a climate unlike that of the past five years of harsh repression and may struggle in the face of real political opposition, a freer press and more public criticism. The kingdom likely will continue to drift, undermining its economy and ensuring that the men in green do not return to the barracks.

Joshua Kurlantzick is senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Chaotic elections bring little stability to Thailand

The military continues to hold extraordinary sway over the country's politics.

Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha casting his vote.

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha at his Bangkok polling station on March 24. Photo: Anusak Laowilas/NurPhoto via Getty Images

World

Thailand

Expert Voices

Defying poor pre-election polling, Palang Pracharat, the Thai army&#x27;s proxy party, performed well in this past weekend&#x27;s elections, the country&#x27;s first since 2011. However, its success came amid <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="low turnout" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/9IpACwpR0mHOYNZhVieLI?domain=economist.com" data-vars-content-id="69fcd972-4f1a-4764-8d11-8306a9dc95c2" data-vars-headline="Chaotic elections bring little stability to Thailand" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/9IpACwpR0mHOYNZhVieLI?domain=economist.com" target="_blank">low turnout</a>, claims of widespread <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="fraud" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/cKvZCxk76vIGrXqIvSVEH?domain=asiatimes.com" data-vars-content-id="69fcd972-4f1a-4764-8d11-8306a9dc95c2" data-vars-headline="Chaotic elections bring little stability to Thailand" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/cKvZCxk76vIGrXqIvSVEH?domain=asiatimes.com" target="_blank">fraud</a> and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="irregularities" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/UxfkCyPJwrCj94mTQTOnN?domain=nytimes.com" data-vars-content-id="69fcd972-4f1a-4764-8d11-8306a9dc95c2" data-vars-headline="Chaotic elections bring little stability to Thailand" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/UxfkCyPJwrCj94mTQTOnN?domain=nytimes.com" target="_blank">irregularities</a>, and repeated <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="bungling of results" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/9sVkCzpx6KHPJrNiKClQl?domain=edition.cnn.com" data-vars-content-id="69fcd972-4f1a-4764-8d11-8306a9dc95c2" data-vars-headline="Chaotic elections bring little stability to Thailand" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/9sVkCzpx6KHPJrNiKClQl?domain=edition.cnn.com" target="_blank">bungling of results</a> by Thailand&#x27;s Election Commission.Why it matters: Thailand, a U.S. treaty ally, is now likely to remain alone among middle- and upper-income countries as a place where the armed forces wield dominant power, leaving it in league with poorer and more fragile states like Egypt, Pakistan and Mauritania.

Despite provoking international condemnation for his disdain for laws and institutions, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte seems likely to gain stronger domestic support in the May 13 midterms, when voters will elect the lower house of Congress and part of the Senate.

Why it matters: Long one of the most democratic states in Southeast Asia, the Philippines has seen under Duterte an illiberal crackdown on the press, judiciary and political opposition and an anti-drug campaign that reportedly has led to the deaths of over 12,000 people, often through extrajudicial killings.

Background: Duterte was elected in 2016 with less than 50% of the vote. He now boasts a 79% approval rating, lifted up by a brash style, his drug war and increased spending on social programs. He also commands a powerful army of social media followers.

The opposition had hoped to make gains in the Senate, which has been the center of oversight and resistance. But Duterte's allies could win every Senate seat up for grabs, in spite of headwinds like rising inflation.

The impact: The legislature has been essentially a rubber stamp as it is. With stronger support, Duterte could push through even bigger changes:

A plan for radical constitutional changes to create a more federal system of government (though passage of the divisive reforms is hardly guaranteed)

A weakening of institutions designed to protect civil rights

A clearer path toward dynastic rule, positioning Duterte's daughter to run for president after his term ends

What to watch: The Philippines is a U.S. treaty ally and a frontline state in the tense U.S.–China relationship. Early in his term, Duterte seemed ready to abandon Manila’s historically close links with Washington in favor of warmer ties with Beijing — and a potential influx of Chinese aid and investment.

But as China has become more aggressive in the disputed South China Sea — hundreds of Chinese ships, for instance, neared the Philippine-claimed Thitu island — Duterte has recalibrated, warning China to “lay off” Thitu and stepping up security links with Washington.

Still, the Philippines desperately needs foreign investment, particularly in infrastructure, so Duterte will likely not do too much to alienate Beijing.

Philippine midterm elections could further consolidate Duterte's power

He's led an illiberal crackdown on the press, judiciary and political opposition.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. Photo: Noel Celis/AFP/Getty Images

Philippines

Despite provoking international condemnation for his disdain for laws and institutions, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte seems likely to gain stronger domestic support in the May 13 midterms, when voters will elect the lower house of Congress and part of the Senate.Why it matters: Long one of the most democratic states in Southeast Asia, the Philippines has seen under Duterte an illiberal <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="crackdown" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/zxHMC4xY6RHo6OgCOOfO9?domain=carnegieendowment.org" data-vars-content-id="985a17fe-24d2-4499-99f1-8a3163d08214" data-vars-headline="Philippine midterm elections could further consolidate Duterte&#x27;s power" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/zxHMC4xY6RHo6OgCOOfO9?domain=carnegieendowment.org" target="_blank">crackdown</a> on the press, judiciary and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="political opposition" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/zxHMC4xY6RHo6OgCOOfO9?domain=carnegieendowment.org" data-vars-content-id="985a17fe-24d2-4499-99f1-8a3163d08214" data-vars-headline="Philippine midterm elections could further consolidate Duterte&#x27;s power" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/zxHMC4xY6RHo6OgCOOfO9?domain=carnegieendowment.org" target="_blank">political opposition</a> and an anti-drug campaign that reportedly has led to the deaths of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="over 12,000 people" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/1r6mC5y179svR7ECOkRZP?domain=hrw.org" data-vars-content-id="985a17fe-24d2-4499-99f1-8a3163d08214" data-vars-headline="Philippine midterm elections could further consolidate Duterte&#x27;s power" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/1r6mC5y179svR7ECOkRZP?domain=hrw.org" target="_blank">over 12,000 people</a>, often through extrajudicial killings.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Ahead of Indonesia’s elections on April 17, sitting president Joko Widodo has a lead of double digits in many polls over his challenger, Prabowo Subianto.

Why it matters: Until recently, Indonesia has been a model of democratization. Though those gains have slipped under Jokowi — as the incumbent is also known — and Islamist groups have gained some power, Prabowo could pose a greater risk to the country's fragile progress.

Context: Jokowi won a hard-fought race against Prabowo in 2014 and enjoys greater popularity than his rival, despite a mixed record in his first term on critical economic issues.

Prabowo is a skilled speaker, but he struggles to connect with working class voters. His campaign appears to lack the resources it had in the past and hasn't benefited from any dramatic, game-changing events.

Although Prabowo made up ground in the last days of the 2014 race, and undecided voters might still swing his way, his current polling deficit is a steep hill to climb. 

Background: Jokowi has rolled out policies that help poorer Indonesians and unveiled plans designed to expand food aid and other social welfare programs.

But his administration has bounced between combating monopolies and embracing statist economics — reforms investors desperately seek — and coddling Indonesia’s entrenched business interests.

Widespread graft and patronage also constrain the country’s economic potential.

Meanwhile, Islamist groups have gained influence in recent years. They have the staying power to undermine the country’s secular traditions and foster growing intolerance. Islamist-linked terror attacks remain a serious threat as well.

To maintain his power and help win the election, Jokowi has at times empowered these groups and mostly ignored, or even abetted, a democratic decline.

Yet a Prabowo victory could carry more dangers: As a lieutenant general in the repressive Suharto era, he was allegedly linked to abuses and has in the past seemed disdainful of democratic institutions and norms.

The bottom line: If Jokowi cruises to reelection, he might have the political capital to reform the economy, reduce the power of Islamists and fulfill earlier promises to fight corruption, improve the economy and promote human rights.

Indonesia's elections could shape the future of its democratic gains

The incumbent's record is mixed, but his challenger has alleged ties to past rights abuses.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo at a campaign rally in Ngawi, Indonesia. Photo: Juni Kriswanto/AFP/Getty Images

Indonesia

Ahead of Indonesia’s elections on April 17, sitting president Joko Widodo has a lead of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="double digits" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/MkO9CER6q9CRwGRTNCHXs?domain=asia.nikkei.com" data-vars-content-id="bde6b51d-60e5-454a-99b7-e68ac089196b" data-vars-headline="Indonesia&#x27;s elections could shape the future of its democratic gains" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/MkO9CER6q9CRwGRTNCHXs?domain=asia.nikkei.com" target="_blank">double digits</a> in many polls over his challenger, Prabowo Subianto.Why it matters: Until recently, Indonesia has been a model of democratization. Though those gains have slipped under Jokowi — as the incumbent is also known — and Islamist groups have gained some power, Prabowo could pose a greater risk to the country&#x27;s fragile progress.

China's global influence campaigns are drawing heightened responses, from a bipartisan bill in the U.S. Senate and anti-interference laws in Australia to new legislation in Germany that would limit Chinese investment in media.

Why it matters: Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has more openly wielded power abroad, trying to influence other countries’ political debates, media coverage and education systems. These efforts extend China's authoritarian control of information, manipulate discussions of its policies and intimidate ethnic Chinese populations around the world.

Details: Beyond the hard power of military and economic coercion, China is expanding its soft power to “sell” an image of itself through its own state media and content-sharing deals with foreign outlets. It also deploys "sharp power" to manipulate other societies, often through misinformation.

Chinese broadcaster CGTN and newswire Xinhua have opened new foreign bureaus and filled many with journalists from CNN, Al Jazeera, the BBC and other well-regarded outlets. Beijing exerts outsized influence over the international Chinese-language press (including within the U.S.), limiting international scrutiny of China.

China's propagandistic state news outlets have amassed staggering, if perhaps slightly inflated, numbers of Facebook followers, nearly all of them outside China (where Facebook is blocked).

Confucius Institutes that offer language and culture training at universities have promoted censorship by blocking conference materials and fostering "formal and informal speech codes" around sensitive issues.

China's United Front Work Department has expanded and been given a larger global role to suppress criticism and covertly influence ethnic Chinese associations, political parties, campus organizations and other groups.

Where it stands: The gains from China's influence apparatus have so far been mixed. CGTN is only the 10th most popular network in Asia, for example, and has struggled to reach audiences in other regions. But these efforts have sparked backlashes in some states, and its sharp power can end up hurting its soft power.

FBI Director Christopher Wray has warned universities that China uses cooperation for espionage and has said the FBI is taking "investigative steps" into Confucius Institutes, some of which have already been closed due to reports about censorship.

China's heavy-handed approach has alienated policymakers and the general public in Australia, Malaysia and elsewhere.

The bottom line: China's influence operations are far-reaching, consequential efforts that merit vigilance, even if they have not all proved as successful as Beijing intended.

China's expanding global influence campaigns are sparking pushback

The response includes new laws introduced or passed in the U.S., Germany and Australia.

students in a classroom at a Confucius Institute

A class at the Community College of Denver's Confucius Institute. Photo: RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post via Getty Images

China

Media

China&#x27;s global influence campaigns are drawing heightened responses, from a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="bipartisan bill" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/d3HnCzpx6KH7LjzT4El_G?domain=congress.gov" data-vars-content-id="c7e7b431-9b7b-4be4-ba57-35cc610a3882" data-vars-headline="China&#x27;s expanding global influence campaigns are sparking pushback" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/d3HnCzpx6KH7LjzT4El_G?domain=congress.gov" target="_blank">bipartisan bill</a> in the U.S. Senate and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="anti-interference laws" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/aOAbCAD96PS8YD5c8TkYi?domain=bloomberg.com" data-vars-content-id="c7e7b431-9b7b-4be4-ba57-35cc610a3882" data-vars-headline="China&#x27;s expanding global influence campaigns are sparking pushback" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/aOAbCAD96PS8YD5c8TkYi?domain=bloomberg.com" target="_blank">anti-interference laws</a> in Australia to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="new legislation" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ft.com/content/568183dc-038e-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1" data-vars-content-id="c7e7b431-9b7b-4be4-ba57-35cc610a3882" data-vars-headline="China&#x27;s expanding global influence campaigns are sparking pushback" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ft.com/content/568183dc-038e-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1" target="_blank">new legislation</a> in Germany that would limit Chinese investment in media.Why it matters: Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has more <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="openly wielded power abroad" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/GkkuCBBRrLtyoLNsN_xYe?domain=economist.com" data-vars-content-id="c7e7b431-9b7b-4be4-ba57-35cc610a3882" data-vars-headline="China&#x27;s expanding global influence campaigns are sparking pushback" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/GkkuCBBRrLtyoLNsN_xYe?domain=economist.com" target="_blank">openly wielded power abroad</a>, trying to influence other countries’ political debates, media coverage and education systems. These efforts extend China&#x27;s authoritarian control of information, manipulate discussions of its policies and intimidate ethnic Chinese populations around the world.

Newly sworn in for his second term in office, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has already made clear that he will prioritize an economic agenda focused on investment and infrastructure over political reforms.

Why it matters: Indonesia is the largest economy in Southeast Asia and has made a striking transition from the Suharto dictatorship to a vibrant democracy over the past 20 years. Jokowi, as the president is widely known, entered his first term vowing to battle graft, but his shift in focus may put civil liberties and the country's hard-won democratization at risk.

Where it stands: Jokowi’s economic program has been relatively successful. His administration has taken important steps to reduce poverty and improve growth, although Indonesia’s economy still struggles with monopolies, graft and red tape.

Yes, but: Many Indonesians are angry that Jokowi seems to have abandoned the fight against corruption and for political change.

Jokowi did little as parliament passed legislation gutting the country’s anti-graft watchdog. Thousands demonstrated earlier this year in the streets against that decision and other potential laws that would drastically reduce personal freedoms. The protests left hundreds injured and three students killed.

Jokowi has stayed the implementation of the restrictive laws, but they could be passed through the new parliament.

Background: Jokowi is Indonesia's first president not to emerge from the military or the political elite and has presented himself as a reform-minded man of the people.

In winning his second term, he fought off a challenge from Prabowo Subianto — a former general who has touted his strongman, anti-democratic appeal and has allegedly overseen widespread rights abuses — only to turn around and appoint him defense minister.

The arrangement keeps his rival close, but Prabowo is known as a loose cannon and will have significant authority as defense minister.

Between the lines: While some of Jokowi's appointees are capable, such as the respected finance minister, he has drawn heavily from the army, which still often operates with near impunity, and has chosen other politically expedient figures with little regard for corruption or civil liberties.

These Cabinet choices align with other decisions to win broad support for his economic agenda. Prabowo, for example, brings with him the backing of the third-largest party in parliament.

The bottom line: Jokowi’s economic focus might further boost Indonesia’s growth rate, while cementing a parallel legacy of democratic decay.

Jokowi's growth agenda could leave democratic reforms behind

Indonesia has made a striking transition in the two decades since the Suharto dictatorship.

Joko Widodo standing on stage at his second inauguration ceremony

Joko Widodo at his inauguration ceremony, Oct. 20. Photo: Oscar Siagian/Getty Images

Jokowi

Newly <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="sworn in" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/iltmCyPJwrCw9PVhZytBQ?domain=nytimes.com" data-vars-content-id="e1c1535c-7e10-43f7-80d4-a6a62a08bf39" data-vars-headline="Jokowi&#x27;s growth agenda could leave democratic reforms behind" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/iltmCyPJwrCw9PVhZytBQ?domain=nytimes.com" target="_blank">sworn in</a> for his second term in office, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has already made clear that he will prioritize an <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="economic agenda" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/uH69Czpx6KHZJYVuXsWeC?domain=thejakartapost.com" data-vars-content-id="e1c1535c-7e10-43f7-80d4-a6a62a08bf39" data-vars-headline="Jokowi&#x27;s growth agenda could leave democratic reforms behind" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/uH69Czpx6KHZJYVuXsWeC?domain=thejakartapost.com" target="_blank">economic agenda</a> focused on <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="investment" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/aiyKCAD96PSX7KqF9CejV?domain=straitstimes.com" data-vars-content-id="e1c1535c-7e10-43f7-80d4-a6a62a08bf39" data-vars-headline="Jokowi&#x27;s growth agenda could leave democratic reforms behind" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/aiyKCAD96PSX7KqF9CejV?domain=straitstimes.com" target="_blank">investment</a> and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="infrastructure" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/1M5BCBBRrLtrEX2fj1lXT?domain=reuters.com" data-vars-content-id="e1c1535c-7e10-43f7-80d4-a6a62a08bf39" data-vars-headline="Jokowi&#x27;s growth agenda could leave democratic reforms behind" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/1M5BCBBRrLtrEX2fj1lXT?domain=reuters.com" target="_blank">infrastructure</a> over <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="political reforms" data-vars-click-url="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/PVtfCDkJq9IzgLGuluPrD?domain=time.com" data-vars-content-id="e1c1535c-7e10-43f7-80d4-a6a62a08bf39" data-vars-headline="Jokowi&#x27;s growth agenda could leave democratic reforms behind" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/PVtfCDkJq9IzgLGuluPrD?domain=time.com" target="_blank">political reforms</a>.Why it matters: Indonesia is the largest economy in Southeast Asia and has made a striking transition from the Suharto dictatorship to a vibrant democracy over the past 20 years. Jokowi, as the president is widely known, entered his first term vowing to battle graft, but his shift in focus may put civil liberties and the country&#x27;s hard-won democratization at risk.

Joshua Kurlantzick

Stories

Jokowi's growth agenda could leave democratic reforms behind

China's expanding global influence campaigns are sparking pushback

Philippine midterm elections could further consolidate Duterte's power

Indonesia's elections could shape the future of its democratic gains

Chaotic elections bring little stability to Thailand