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Chinese leader Xi Jinping's expected absence from this year's G20 leaders summit in New Delhi will give President Biden — and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — a bigger opening to push their agendas.

The big picture: This will be the first time Xi has missed a G20 summit since he assumed power in late 2012, and comes as he is facing major challenges at home. Chinese Premier Li Qiang will attend in his stead.

Russian president Vladimir Putin will also skip the summit, for the second year in a row. Most G20 members condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine at last year's summit.

What we're watching: Biden plans to use the G20 to push for a lending program for developing countries, White House officials said — a move to counter China's massive Belt and Road Initiative, which has seen billions of dollars in infrastructure projects for developing countries over the past decade.

And the Biden administration yesterday released the text of a new Indo-Pacific supply chain agreement with a group of 14 countries that does not include China.

Revealing the full text of the agreement the week of both the G20 and ASEAN summits highlights the administration's effort to demonstrate the U.S. can still pull together a bloc of countries to achieve multilateral goals.

Details: Modi has presented the summit as evidence of India's growing global leadership, coinciding with India's successful moon landing a few weeks ago. India also recently overtook China to become the most populous country in the world.

"For too long, India was seen as a country of one billion hungry stomachs," The Guardian quoted Modi as saying in an interview on Sunday. "Now it is one billion aspirational minds and two billion skilled hands."

The intrigue: Ties between Beijing and Delhi have become heavily strained in recent years. Small but deadly clashes along disputed parts of their shared border in 2020 and 2022 sent relations spiraling.

India responded by blocking dozens of Chinese mobile apps, including TikTok, and both countries have booted each other’s journalists.

Yes, but: India is a member of both the Quad — an informal grouping that also includes the U.S., Australia,  and Japan formed largely to counter Beijing's influence in the Indo-Pacific — and a member of BRICS, which just expanded to include six new countries in a move widely seen as aiming to counter the West. 

That seeming contradiction is in part because India has long been a leader in the non-alignment movement, and it isn't looking to shake up that aspect of its foreign policy any time soon.

Between the lines: Beijing hasn't given a reason for Xi's absence, but analysts have presented several theories.

It could be a snub intended to reduce the prestige and global legitimacy of India's hosting of the annual summit. 

Xi's presence "would have meant normalizing relations without making any sincere effort to resolve the border crises," Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research, told the New York Times. 

But it could also indicate that Xi is "preoccupied with domestic issues," Brian Hart of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told CNN. 

Flashback: Xi's absence comes in stark contrast to his "charm offensive" leading up to last year's G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, where he held relatively upbeat meetings on the sidelines with Biden and the leaders of more than half a dozen other countries.

Last year's meeting between Biden and Xi was viewed as a key step in stopping the downward spiral in relations between the U.S. and China. 

Xi's G20 no-show gives Biden and Modi an opening

Biden will push for a new lending program.

Chinese President Xi Jinping makes a speech during the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa on August 24, 2023. (Photo by BRICS/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

World

The ousting of two top Chinese government officials in under two months is the latest indication that the leadership in Beijing is increasingly fixated on eliminating security risks. 

Why it matters: The Chinese Communist Party's growing preoccupation with stamping out perceived national security threats at home could undermine China's reputation abroad for stable leadership. 

The turbulence in China's top ranks damages the aura of stability that the Chinese government has cultivated in comparison to the frequent elections and leadership transitions in democracies, Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow at the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, told Axios.

But authoritarian systems "lack a set of rules around how transition happens related to individual people in the system," bringing its own form of unpredictability, Stokes said. 

Driving the news: The Chinese Communist Party is reportedly investigating former Foreign Minister Qin Gang for an affair he had while serving as ambassador to the U.S., the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday.  The affair reportedly led to the birth of a child in the U.S.

Rumors began swirling about Qin and his possible affair earlier this summer. In July, after Qin hadn't been seen in public for over a month, the Chinese government announced without explanation that he had been removed from his post. 

Party leaders reportedly view the alleged affair and U.S.-born child as security risks that might affect Qin's loyalties and ability to carry out his duties on behalf of Beijing. 

China's defense minister, Li Shangfu, was also reportedly detained last week. Both Qin and Li were selected by Chinese president Xi Jinping as part of a slate of loyalists he installed within China's leadership over the past year.

What's happening: The reported investigations of top former ministers come amid a major government push against foreign espionage.

In August, China's intelligence agency called on all citizens to report suspicious activity. 

Cash rewards are being offered for information leading to the arrest of spies, and posters have appeared on the campuses of Chinese universities urging students to be vigilant, Bloomberg reports. 

The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

Between the lines: China's diplomats have long faced suspicion back home due to their close contact with foreign governments and societies — but scrutiny seems to have intensified under Xi. 

"Qin's abrupt removal reflects Beijing's heightened sensitivity to potential risks, real or imagined," Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the  Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, told Axios.

"If a U.S. diplomat in China were to mirror Qin's alleged indiscretions, Chinese security services would almost certainly seize the opportunity for strategic gain," said Singleton, who added that Xi likely believes the U.S. could seek to exploit Qin's private life. 

The big picture: In recent months, Xi has made a big push to promote China as the center of an emerging global governance intended to rival that of the West — an effort that could be undermined if Beijing isn't seen as reliable or steady.

In August, the group of emerging economies known as BRICS agreed to invite six more nations to join, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, in what was seen as an expansion of China's political influence.

Xi has also skipped West-dominated summits over the past month, including the G20 leaders summit in New Delhi and this week's United Nations General Assembly.

Some analysts believe this is a sign Xi is trying to reduce the influence of West-dominated multilateral organizations in favor of China-centric ones, though others suggest it may be that Xi is focusing on problems at home, including a flagging economy.

What to watch: The U.S.-China diplomatic relationship so far doesn't seem affected by China's domestic turmoil. Washington and Beijing have maintained a schedule of high-level meetings in recent days despite the leadership shake-up.

In Malta over the weekend, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan held two days of meetings with China's new foreign minister,  Wang Yi, a seasoned diplomat . 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Chinese Vice President Han Zheng on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly this week. 

These meetings suggest the pieces could still be in place for a possible Biden-Xi meeting at APEC in San Francisco later this year, Stokes said, though Xi has not yet confirmed his attendance.

Xi protégés fall as Beijing focuses on security risks

A growing preoccupation with stamping out perceived national security threats at home could undermine China's reputation abroad for stable leadership.

Photo illustration of Xi Jinping, Qin Gang and Li Shangfu.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photos: Noel Celis/AFP, Gianluigi Guercia/AFP via Getty Images

The ousting of two top Chinese government officials in under two months is the latest indication that the leadership in Beijing is increasingly fixated on eliminating security risks. Why it matters: The Chinese Communist Party&#x27;s growing preoccupation with stamping out perceived national security threats at home could undermine China&#x27;s reputation abroad for stable leadership.

OTTAWA, Canada — The Canadian government's recently announced public inquiry into alleged efforts by China and other foreign governments to interfere in Canadian elections is fueling an intense debate that has roiled politics here in recent months.

The big picture: The Chinese government's alleged attempts to influence the outcomes of Canada's 2019 and 2021 elections suggest Beijing is trying peel away support for America's China policies from its closest allies.

"China is targeting Canada because it is a G7 country, there is a large Chinese diaspora, there are vulnerabilities in our electoral process and, up until recently, there were no consequences for meddling in Canadian business," Guy Saint-Jacques, who served as Canada's ambassador to China from 2012 to 2016, told Axios.

Details: Canadian news reports earlier this year, citing anonymous Canadian intelligence officials and leaked classified documents, alleged that Chinese intelligence officials had funneled donations to its preferred candidates — all members of Canada's Liberal Party led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. 

The Chinese government also allegedly spread online disinformation targeting Conservative Party candidates critical of China.

There are also allegations that Beijing has harassed and threatened Chinese communities in Canada, eroding their ability to participate freely in Canadian politics.

Michael Chong, a Conservative lawmaker in Canada's Parliament who has been critical of China's human rights record, told U.S. lawmakers this week about China's efforts to collect information about him and harass his family in Hong Kong.

Beijing has denied the allegations, calling them "slander and defamation." 

What's happening: There is an intense debate about what the government should do to protect Canada's democratic processes from external interference, while also addressing concerns that a heavy-handed response might unfairly target Chinese Canadians.

Some analysts have criticized the Canadian government for failing to act earlier or to share intelligence with lawmakers. 

Without the intelligence leaks to the press earlier this year, "we would still be oblivious to what had happened in our last two elections," Margaret McCuaig-Johnston, a board member at China Strategic Risks Institute and a former senior Canadian government official, told Axios.

Once the public inquiry is completed, "the big question will be how the government, and more precisely the Liberal Party, has been handling the information that its security services were providing," Saint-Jacques said. "Why were no forceful measures taken?"

Trudeau has said he takes concerns about foreign interference "extraordinarily seriously."

The Canadian Embassy in D.C. did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

State of play: Trudeau called last week for democratic countries to work together to expand trade ties across Asia so that Beijing cannot "play us off each other" in a scramble for access to the Chinese market. 

The U.S. is Canada's largest trading partner, importing 77% of Canada's total exports in 2022. China is a distant second, importing less than 4% of Canadian exports last year.

Canada is a member of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing alliance with the U.S., Australia, New Zealand and the U.K. — countries that have all faced Chinese government political interference as well.

The Canadian and U.S. navies sailed warships through the Taiwan Strait over the weekend in their latest joint "freedom of navigation" operation intended to challenge Beijing's unilateral claim to sovereignty over the strait.

Background: A desire to have closer trade ties with China dominated Canada's approach to Beijing during the 2010s, when ties were warm.

But relations between Canada and China plummeted after the Chinese government detained two Canadian citizens in December 2018 in retaliation for the Canadian government's detention of top Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in compliance with a U.S. extradition request.

Former Canadian diplomat Michael Kovrig and consultant Michael Spavor were held for more than 1,000 days. They were charged with espionage but released just hours after an agreement between Meng and the U.S. Department of Justice resulted in the Huawei executive's release.

What to watch: The Canadian government is expected to create a foreign agent registry by the end of the year.

Government officials have looked to the U.S. and Australia as models. Both countries require people lobbying on behalf of a foreign government or entity to file public disclosures.

"Electoral interference has to be resolved before the next election," McCuaig-Johnston said. "We can't go into the next election with things hanging over us."

Go deeper: How unheeded warnings about China are now hurting Chinese Canadians

How unheeded warnings about China are now hurting Chinese Canadians

Canada's China election interference debate is intensifying

Illustration of the maple leaf from the Canadian flag and a yellow star from the Chinese flag almost touching, with ripped paper separating the two symbols.

OTTAWA, Canada — The Canadian government&#x27;s recently announced <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="public inquiry" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/07/canada-trudeau-china-election-meddling-probe" data-vars-content-id="61274112-a928-46c7-9f12-f8447fd56d1a" data-vars-headline="Canada&#x27;s China election interference debate is intensifying" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/07/canada-trudeau-china-election-meddling-probe" target="_self">public inquiry</a> into alleged efforts by China and other foreign governments to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="interfere in Canadian elections" data-vars-click-url="https://www.canada.ca/en/democratic-institutions/news/2023/09/government-of-canada-launches-public-inquiry-into-foreign-interference.html" data-vars-content-id="61274112-a928-46c7-9f12-f8447fd56d1a" data-vars-headline="Canada&#x27;s China election interference debate is intensifying" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.canada.ca/en/democratic-institutions/news/2023/09/government-of-canada-launches-public-inquiry-into-foreign-interference.html" target="_blank">interfere in Canadian elections</a> is fueling an intense debate that has roiled politics here in recent months.The big picture: The Chinese government&#x27;s alleged attempts to influence the outcomes of Canada&#x27;s 2019 and 2021 elections suggest Beijing is trying peel away support for America&#x27;s China policies from its closest allies.

A bipartisan resolution to be introduced in the Senate on Tuesday will urge U.S. universities to support educational ties with Taiwan as an alternative to programs funded by the Chinese government.

The big picture: China-funded language programs in the U.S. are closing amid growing scrutiny, leaving a gap that could be filled by an increasingly robust U.S.-Taiwan relationship. 

The number of Chinese government-funded Confucius Institutes, which teach Chinese language and culture to U.S. university students,  has dropped from more than one hundred in 2017 to just seven in early 2023 amid growing U.S. government pressure.

U.S. university administrators have expressed concern that students need more opportunities to study Chinese, which continues to be an important skill in business, politics, and other careers. 

Details: U.S. Senators Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.) will introduce a resolution on Tuesday that calls on colleges and universities to support the U.S.-Taiwan Education Initiative, their offices tell Axios.

The U.S. and Taiwan launched the U.S.-Taiwan Education Initiative in December 2020 to offer funding and support for Americans to learn Chinese from Taiwanese teachers both in the U.S. and Taiwan, and for Taiwanese to study English. 

What they're saying: "Our institutes of higher learning must be free from China's grasp while still teaching students about the culture, history, and language," Blackburn said in a statement. 

"If we want to continue building a strong relationship with Taiwan, then we need to support foreign language exchange between our two nations," Markey said in a statement. 

Background: China's Ministry of Education-funded Confucius Institutes have been known on some occasions to censor discussion of sensitive topics in the classrooms and elsewhere on campuses.

The 2018 National Defense Authorization Act prohibited universities that receive Defense Department funding for language programs from also accepting language program funding from the Chinese government. 

 The U.S. designated Confucius Institutes as foreign missions in August 2020, requiring them to provide the State Department with disclosures about their personnel and funding.

First look: Lawmakers to push Taiwan language programs at universities as China alternative

U.S. university administrators have expressed concern that students have fewer opportunities to study Chinese.

Historical Chinese documents at San Francisco State University

Historical Chinese documents at San Francisco State University. Photo: Liz Hafalia/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images

A bipartisan resolution to be introduced in the Senate on Tuesday will urge U.S. universities to support educational ties with Taiwan as an alternative to programs funded by the Chinese government.The big picture: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="China-funded language programs" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2020/01/18/oldest-confucius-institute-us-close" data-vars-content-id="88c308c2-f026-44fd-a3f0-5fc2b57d9f5b" data-vars-headline="First look: Lawmakers to push Taiwan language programs at universities as China alternative" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2020/01/18/oldest-confucius-institute-us-close" target="_self">China-funded language programs</a> in the U.S. are closing amid growing scrutiny, leaving a gap that could be filled by an increasingly robust U.S.-Taiwan relationship.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Several lawmakers from both sides of the aisle are calling for the U.S. to take stronger measures to push back against ongoing unfair trade practices and industrial espionage coming from China. 

Why it matters: A year after the passage of the CHIPS Act, there's still bipartisan appetite in Congress for more action to promote U.S. technological competitiveness. 

Driving the news: On Monday, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) introduced the Leading Global Innovation Resolution, which calls for further action to counter Beijing's "Made in China 2025" plan for dominance in emerging technologies. 

Both the chair and ranking member of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party signed on as co-sponsors of the resolution.

At a hearing on Tuesday, Rep. Brian Babin (R-Texas), a member of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, said that the CHIPS Act was a good step towards bolstering U.S. competitiveness but it needs better and more efficient implementation.

What they're saying: "There are fundamental challenges that must be overcome for the CHIPS programs to be a success," Babin said at the hearing.

"America cannot profit from trade and international collaboration if China and other nations are allowed to steal intellectual property or cutting-edge research. We cannot afford to settle for business as usual."

It's not just an issue of national strategic significance, Sherrill told Axios in an interview. "Unfair competition from the Chinese Communist Party has had real impacts locally," she said. "It's a New Jersey problem."

What to watch: Sherrill plans to introduce legislation in the coming months that will boost U.S. companies, give the Department of Commerce more tools to fight unfair trade practices and strengthen cooperation with U.S. allies.

"We need to more than simply pass resolutions going forward," Sherrill said. "We need to appropriate funding for research and development, for tech hubs, for the National Science Foundation," and other initiatives. 

"These are the ways we are moving our economy forward."

Lawmakers make bipartisan push on U.S. competitiveness with China

There's still bipartisan appetite in Congress to boost U.S. companies.

Rep. Mikie Sherrill talks to reporters at the U.S. Capitol on Aug. 24, 2021, in Washington, D.C. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Several lawmakers from both sides of the aisle are calling for the U.S. to take stronger measures to push back against ongoing unfair trade practices and industrial <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="espionage" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/17/china-espionage-mandiant-cybersecurity" data-vars-content-id="e6ccc2fe-0e69-499c-ba9a-b8a93944f10d" data-vars-headline="Lawmakers make bipartisan push on U.S. competitiveness with China" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/17/china-espionage-mandiant-cybersecurity" target="_self">espionage</a> coming from China. Why it matters: A year after the passage of the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="CHIPS Act" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/09/biden-chips-bill-signing" data-vars-content-id="e6ccc2fe-0e69-499c-ba9a-b8a93944f10d" data-vars-headline="Lawmakers make bipartisan push on U.S. competitiveness with China" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/08/09/biden-chips-bill-signing" target="_self">CHIPS Act</a>, there&#x27;s still bipartisan appetite in Congress for more action to promote U.S. technological competitiveness.

Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

Stories

First look: Lawmakers to push Taiwan language programs at universities as China alternative

Lawmakers make bipartisan push on U.S. competitiveness with China

Xi protégés fall as Beijing focuses on security risks

Canada's China election interference debate is intensifying

Xi's G20 no-show gives Biden and Modi an opening