Republicans see shrinking boost from redistricting

Zoom out: At the beginning of the cycle, Republicans viewed redistricting like an umbrella in a storm: It could keep their House majority dry in a light drizzle — but in a political hurricane, it wouldn't be enough.

• They're not second-guessing the redistricting strategy, even as they wince at the price tag. According to AdImpact, Republicans have spent $133 million on TV ads trying to win in 15 redrawn districts that were supposed to be easy pickings.
• Still, they no longer talk seriously about redistricting saving their House majority, as they did a year ago — before the Iran war helped boost inflation and sink President Trump's approval ratings.

By the numbers: Early this summer, Republicans believed they had created 16 more GOP-friendly seats: five in Texas, four in Florida, two in Ohio and one each in Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Tennessee.

• But since then, courts tossed a Missouri map and the political environment has darkened, with Democrats holding an 8-percentage-point lead in new Washington Post-ABC polling.

GOP support has eroded particularly among Latino voters, raising Republican fears of losing seats their mapmakers counted on after Trump nearly won the Hispanic vote outright in 2024.

• "Texas, I'd be surprised if we got all five," Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told Axios this month. "Florida, I'd be shocked if we got all four."

The other side: Then factor in California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom, eager to show his party he was willing to fight back, engineered a new map with four more solidly Democratic seats — and one slightly more competitive seat.

• Democrats are supremely confident they can win all five — and their main super PAC has already stopped super PAC spending in one.

Zoom in: So, two weeks before the Nov. 3 election, Republicans are squinting at the map and expecting to win 7 to 12 of the 15 remaining seats they redistricted.

The breakdown: GOP strategists privately think Republicans can still win 2 to 4 of the 5 seats that were redrawn in Texas, and 2 (maybe 3) of the 4 new seats in Florida.

• They could go 0 for 2 in the redrawn seats in Ohio. The revamped seat in North Carolina is a jump ball.
• They're banking on winning all three new seats in Tennessee, Alabama and Louisiana.
• Under their most pessimistic calculations, Republicans worry their mid-cycle redistricting wave could yield just 7 new seats in red states.

But then factor in Newsom's countermove in California, which put Democrats in a strong position to flip 5 seats.

• And in Utah, a judge forced the state to redraw its districts, obliterating a GOP-friendly seat — and creating a Democratic-leaning one in the Salt Lake City area.
• So as it stands now, a worst-case scenario for the GOP's final score after all that redistricting: Republicans gain 7 seats and Democrats gain 6.
• A year of nationwide redistricting to net one Republican seat.

The details: Republicans are confident about three pickups in Southern states, where the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act decision allowed GOP legislatures to redraw maps.

• They have already conceded one redrawn seat in Ohio as part of their midterm triage.

Then there's Texas. Republicans are truly confident about just two of the five seats they redrew: The 9th District in the Houston area and the 32nd District in the Dallas area.

• The main Republican House super PAC has pulled out of Texas' 28th District in South Texas, essentially conceding the seat held by Rep. Henry Cuellar (D). It was rejiggered from a district that Trump won by 7.3 points in 2024 to one he would have won by 10.4 points.
• In Texas' 34th District, which touches the Rio Grande Valley and was similarly redrawn to include more Republicans, parties are spending roughly $18 million on TV ads. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez had a small lead over Republican Eric Flores in the latest NYT/Sienna poll.
• And in Texas' 35th District in Central Texas, which went from one that Kamala Harris won by 33.7 points to one that Trump would have won by 10.4 points, both parties have spent close to $6 million, according to AdImpact. It's too close to call.

The bottom line: In a true blue wave, Republicans could lose seats Trump won by double digits. But in that scenario, Republicans would be unlikely to blame their losses on redistricting.

• They'd point the finger at Trump.