Republicans squirm as Latino support slips in South Texas
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
Republicans are in a dogfight to defend the Latino gains that had them dreaming of a lasting political realignment just two years ago.
Why it matters: Nowhere is that reversal of fortune more visible than in South Texas, where President Trump ran up historic numbers in 2024 — and Republicans redrew the map in 2025, assuming those Latino gains would last.
- Trump won 55% of Texas Latino voters in 2024 exit polls, carried 14 of the 18 counties within 20 miles of the border and won all four Rio Grande Valley counties.
- Polling shows Trump's disapproval ratings have skyrocketed among Latinos in Texas since 2024.
- Democrats and allied groups are now pouring money into races across the Rio Grande Valley.
Zoom in: The reversal is starkest in TX-15, where Rep. Monica De La Cruz was one of the GOP's most visible symbols of its South Texas breakthrough.
- Trump would have carried the newly-drawn district by 18 percentage points in 2024. De La Cruz won her 2024 race under the previous map by 14 points.
- Cook Political Report moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on Sept. 25, saying public and private polling shows the race tied or even favoring Tejano singer and Democrat Bobby Pulido.
By the numbers: Democratic campaigns and allied groups are outspending Republican campaigns and groups on Spanish-language ads in two of the three competitive House districts covering the Rio Grande Valley, according to AdImpact data reported by the Texas Tribune.
- In TX-34, held by Vicente Gonzalez (D), Democratic campaigns and groups have spent $2.7 million on Spanish-language ads, compared with $1.6 million on the Republican side.
- In TX-15, Democratic groups have spent more than twice as much as Republican groups on Spanish-language ads.
- TX-28 bucks the trend: Republicans have narrowly outspent Democrats on Spanish-language ads to unseat Henry Cuellar (D).
Zoom out: TX-34 is also a Toss Up, while TX-28 is Lean Democratic.
- The newly redrawn TX-35 has moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
- House Majority PAC launched another round of ads Tuesday in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34, defending two Democratic incumbents while continuing to target De La Cruz.
The bottom line: A new NBC News/Telemundo poll shows Latinos nationally favor Democratic control of Congress 59%-35%, a 24-point advantage — roughly double the margin the same poll found for Democrats in 2024.
- A recent TelevisaUnivision poll found Latino voters in the three competitive Texas House districts shifting from a 44%-44% split in their 2024 presidential vote to 56%-36% Democratic on the 2026 congressional ballot.
