Republican midterm triage puts bleak outlook into focus
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Republican super PACs are flooding the airwaves in once-safe states, and pulling down ads for races that look like lost causes. President Trump, his approval ratings near record lows, is popping up in some of America's reddest states.
Why it matters: The polls showing Democrats headed toward a blue wave on Nov. 3 may not be quite right. But money — and how campaigns and PACs spend it — rarely lies. Nor do the contrails of Air Force One.
- While Republicans are scrambling, Democrats are cutting some spending in contests they think are in the bag, such as North Carolina's Senate race.
- No one wants to pay too much for a landslide, just as no one wants to throw good money after bad.
Republicans have been forced to pour well over $100 million into Ken Paxton's Senate race in Texas against Democrat James Talarico, and to plead for millions more to defend Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
- Call it political triage. Republican operatives are making the kind of hard decisions that would be familiar to any battlefield medic: Save the wounded, and say a prayer for the lost.
Driving the news: Trump was in San Antonio on Wednesday to try to boost Paxton — his second trip in less than a week to Texas, a state he won by 14 points in 2024.
- During the past week the president also has campaigned in Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska. He's planning another trip to Alabama this weekend for the Georgia-Alabama football game.
- Vice President Vance showed up in Alaska this week, and will be in Ohio this weekend.
What they're saying: Republicans' efforts now appear more focused on calling for party loyalists to show up at the polls than on persuading new voters.
- "Every time they up a buy [ads] on their end, it's always in the red states," said J.B. Poersch, president of Senate Majority PAC, the Democrats' main outside group working to win the Senate.
- "Some of these outside [GOP] groups such as the Senate Leadership Fund and others are going to have to figure out where their money is best spent," said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who lost the GOP primary to Paxton.
- "It looks like the money has already started to shift."
Zoom in: After pulling out of North Carolina (which Trump won by 3 points) last Friday, the SLF — Republicans' main Senate super PAC — put a fresh $14 million in normally deep-red Kansas.
- This week, it sent a $5 million "insurance policy" to South Carolina (which Trump won by 18 points) to boost Republican Sen. Darline Graham.
The other side: Democrats are pulling down some advertising, but in states where polling has solidified in their favor. Their spending moves reflect confidence, not concern.
- After the Senate Republicans' PAC cried uncle and pulled out of North Carolina, the Senate Democrats' group decided to go dark there as well.
- One of Democratic group's ad reservations for North Carolina — which was actually in the Greenville market in South Carolina — was gobbled up by an allied group, Fresh Start SC PAC, which will use the time to attack Graham.
Between the lines: There's triage campaigning in House races as well, but it's not as pronounced — yet.
- The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund pulled down $1.1 million in advertising in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, one of three GOP-held seats where former Vice President Harris won in 2024.
- Democrats followed suit, with House Majority PAC canceling the $1.1 million it had reserved for the race. Both sides appear to agree that there's no obvious path for Republican Brinker Harding to win the seat left open by retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon.
- In a San Diego-area House district, the Democratic group pulled down $200,000 in ads in a redistricted seat Harris would have won.
Zoom out: Republicans insist that their reallocation of funds doesn't mean they're admitting that the House or the Senate are lost.
- One thing neither side disputes: The Senate Leadership Fund, which is closely associated with Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), is well capitalized.
- That allows it to shore up candidates in red states, which wouldn't be necessary in a better political environment. In Texas, one of its subsidiaries spent $131 million in 17 days — more than $7.7 million a day.
- The group has announced another $4 million for the Alaska race, bringing its total there to $21 million for Sen. Dan Sullivan, who's being challenged by former Rep. Mary Peltola.
- In Maine, it has reserved another $8 million, for a total of $50 million for Sen. Susan Collins, who's in a battle with Democrat Troy Jackson.
- In Michigan, it's putting in another $2 million, for a total of $53 million for former Rep. Mike Rogers in his race against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
- And in Ohio, it's spending another $14 million, bringing the total to $93 million for Sen. John Husted, who faces former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).
What we're watching: All eyes are on Georgia. SLF announced an initial investment of $44 million there to back Republican Mike Collins, but Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has a healthy lead.
The bottom line: Republicans can dismiss bad polls as noise, or the result of liberal bias.
- But their concern is evident in their thundering attack ads in red states such as Kansas, South Carolina and Texas.
