House GOP leaders admit redistricting fell short
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Illustration: Aïda Amer / Axios
House GOP leaders are now openly acknowledging that their mid-decade redistricting push didn't work out as well as they'd hoped.
Why it matters: Republicans kicked off the redistricting wars hoping new maps would give them a bigger cushion against the historical headwinds facing the president's party.
- That advantage is looking a lot smaller than they envisioned.
Driving the news: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) told Axios that Republicans won't win all 13 seats they'd hoped to gain from new maps.
- "We're not gonna win all 13 of those redistricted seats. That's correct. We're not," Emmer told Axios aboard a plane Thursday between campaign stops in North Carolina and Virginia.
- Emmer echoed House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), who told Axios last month that Republicans were unlikely to sweep all 13.
Zoom in: Emmer said he'd be "surprised" if Republicans sweep all five newly drawn seats in Texas and "shocked" if they win all four in Florida.
- But he said Republicans are certain to pick up newly drawn seats in Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee.
- At a fundraiser for Rep. Mark Harris (R-N.C.) on Thursday, Emmer told donors that Republicans could also offset losses with pickups in Maine and potentially North Carolina, Ohio, New Mexico and Washington.
- Even assuming Republicans lose five seats because of redistricting in California and Utah, pickups elsewhere give the party a path to come out ahead, Emmer told donors.
State of play: Redistricting still gave Republicans an edge, just smaller than they once thought.
- The Cook Political Report now projects Republicans will net around four seats from redistricting alone, down from the double-digit gains Republicans once hoped to squeeze from new maps.
- Democrats' maps in California and Utah — in response to a new Texas map — offset the GOP gains. Some newly drawn Republican pickup opportunities have become more competitive than expected.
The bottom line: Democrats need to net just three seats to win the House, and the broader battlefield is moving in their direction.
- Cook shifted 15 House races toward Democrats last month, while Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 11 races toward Democrats days later.
- Many of the most competitive races are now in districts President Trump carried in 2024.
