All Trump's roads lead to the Gulf

Breaking it down: Each of Trump's ten most recent predecessors made their first international trips to Canada, Mexico, the U.K. or NATO HQ in Brussels.

• Trump chose Saudi Arabia twice (though he did attend Pope Francis' funeral first this time around).
• He'll also stop this week in Qatar and the UAE, with all three legs of the trip expected to focus on huge investment commitments for AI, aircraft, weapons and more.

Zoom in: Trump's personal business empire in the Gulf is also growing, with projects under development in all three countries he'll be visiting.

• Trump has hosted the Saudi-backed LIV golf tour at his U.S. properties, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner's private equity firm received $2 billion from the kingdom's Public Investment Fund.
• In recent weeks, the Trump Organization has revealed plans to build luxury properties in both Dubai and Doha.
• The Trump family's crypto venture also announced that an Emirati-backed investment firm would use its new stablecoin to complete a $2 billion transaction — drawing massive outcry from Congress.

Behind the scenes: Officials from all three countries have an unusual level of access in Washington, where Gulf money has long bankrolled an army of lobbyists, influencers and think tanks.

• The Qatari prime minister and the Emirati national security adviser were both granted dinners with Trump on recent visits despite not being heads of state.
• Qatar's influence in Trumpworld has been a source of particular concern among pro-Israel Republicans, who accuse the Gulf nation of financing Hamas and other Islamist groups. Qatar denies that.

The big picture: Trump has been looking to the Gulf states for more than just their checkbooks.

• Trump turned to Saudi Arabia to host U.S.-Russia talks, and later U.S.-Ukraine talks. Trump was also interested in meeting Vladimir Putin in Riyadh, along with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
• While that meeting hasn't happened, and Trump has now floated the idea of a summit in Istanbul, the kingdom has built ties with both warring countries and the White House and remains a key player in the diplomatic efforts.
• That's new for a country that's long been a power within the Arab world, but not beyond it.

The Qataris and Emiratis are more experienced international intermediaries, and Trump has leaned on both repeatedly.

• Qatar has mediated the release of Americans detained in Afghanistan, Venezuela, and Gaza — most recently American-Israeli Edan Alexander, who was freed by Hamas on Monday after 584 days in captivity. Qatar is also a mediator in the Gaza ceasefire process.

• The UAE coordinated the release of Russian-American ballerina Ksenia Karelina from a Russian prison last month, as it had with basketball star Brittney Griner in 2022. The Emiratis have also been involved in coordinating a "day after" strategy for Gaza with the U.S.

Between the lines: The Biden and Obama administrations also turned to Qatar and the UAE in similar situations. Call it continuity with Trumpian twists — like Qatar's "gift" of a Boeing 747-8 to be used as the new Air Force One.

• For Gulf rulers, Trump offers something his predecessors didn't: fewer lectures, more arms deals and a direct line to U.S. power insulated from Congress.

The intrigue: The U.S. first went to the Emiratis to help bring Iran to the table for nuclear talks, but Tehran made clear they preferred to work with another small oil-rich Gulf state: Oman.

• Oman is still mediating those talks, and White House envoy Steve Witkoff also turned to them to mediate a truce with the Houthis in Yemen.

Friction point: The Iran talks, the Houthi deal and the chumminess with Qatar are all happening with very little input from another key U.S. partner in the region, Israel — to the irritation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The bottom line: If there's a crisis breaking out, or money to be made, Trump is likely to look first to the Gulf states.