What the polling models say about whether Trump or Harris will win

Breaking it down:

• Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" has a virtual coinflip: Trump with a 50.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, Harris with a 49.2% chance, and a 0.4% chance of a 269-269 result that would throw the election to the House of Representatives.
• FiveThirtyEight's model has a similar result, with Trump winning 53% of their simulations and Harris 47%.
• The Economist's model is at precisely 50/50, thanks to some late momentum for Harris.

Zoom in: The models generally agree that out of the seven swing states:

• Trump is narrowly favored in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.
• Harris is very slightly favored in Michigan and Wisconsin.
• Pennsylvania and Nevada are incredibly close — and Pennsylvania is likely to swing the election one way or the other.

Between the lines: The models are largely based on the same polls, so it's not a huge surprise that they have such similar results.

• The results also might not be quite as close as the polls suggest — if they are even slightly skewed toward one candidate or the other, a 50/50 race could turn into an Electoral College rout.

The betting markets have also been narrowing after weeks of favoring Trump.

• Kalshi shows Trump with a 54% chance vs. 46% for Harris, PredictIt shows a coinflip, while Polymarket gives Trump a 56% chance of victory.
• There are reasons to take the prediction markets with a grain of salt, including the disproportionately large wagers that tilt the odds one way or another, Axios' Brady Dale and Nathan Bomey report.

Go deeper:

• Internal email: Trump campaign prepares for either outcome
• Mapped: The states Harris and Trump are visiting most
• What's coming in the 76 days from Election Day to inauguration